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Hapoel Kfar Shalem v Hapoel Ra'anana

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

2–1Full time

Hapoel Ra'anana

Liga Leumit · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:31

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 2–1 Hapoel Ra'anana HAPOEL KFAR SHALEM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Kfar Shalem win~~41%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.520

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.691

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Kfar Shalem win at 41%.
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Kfar Shalem v Hapoel Ra'anana
2′Little has changed for our model: Hapoel Kfar Shalem 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–23–35
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1–0 Hapoel Ra'anana
14′12′ and it is 1–0: Hapoel Kfar Shalem have scored. 1–0 · 66–19–16
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
15′12′ and it is 1–0: Hapoel Kfar Shalem have scored. 1–0 · 66–19–15
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
16′12′ and it is 1–0: Hapoel Kfar Shalem have scored. 1–0 · 66–19–15
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
18′We said Hapoel Kfar Shalem at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–19–15
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 67–20–13
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
34′⚽ GOAL · 12' Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1–0 Hapoel Ra'anana
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
45′🟥 RED CARD · 49' Hapoel Ra'anana
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1–0 Hapoel Ra'anana
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1–0 Hapoel Ra'anana
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Hapoel Kfar Shalem 2–0 Hapoel Ra'anana
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Hapoel Kfar Shalem 2–1 Hapoel Ra'anana
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Kfar Shalem 2–1 Hapoel Ra'anana
FTHapoel Kfar Shalem 2–1 Hapoel Ra'anana · Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Kfar Shalem win41%

Draw24%

Hapoel Ra'anana win35%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

Hapoel Ra'anana

11Days since last match11

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Hapoel Ra'anana	8	+8	15
7	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	8	0	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel kfar shalem winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 11 Oct 17:27 · locked at kick-off

41% The market33%

Us41%

~~Market~~33%

We make Hapoel Kfar Shalem a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hapoel kfar shalem win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Kfar Shalem win	41%	33%	+9
Draw	24%	25%	−2
Hapoel Ra'anana win	35%	42%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	65%	60%	+5
Both teams to score	66%	63%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	81%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	44%	40%	+3
Hapoel Kfar Shalem or draw	65%	58%	+7
Hapoel Kfar Shalem clean sheet	20%	–	–
Hapoel Ra'anana clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.2 5.0 4.5 2.4 1 5.6 10.2 7.6 4.1 2 5.3 8.4 6.7 3.6 3 3.2 4.9 3.9 2.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Kfar Shalem down, Hapoel Ra'anana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,553 Liga Leumit matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Kfar Shalem at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Ra'anana away: 2.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Hapoel Kfar Shalem, 1.61 for Hapoel Ra'anana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HAP 2–1 HAP · HAP 1–3 HAP · HAP 2–2 HAP · HAP 3–1 HAP

Form · last six in Liga Leumit

HAPOEL KFAR SHALEM

WLDDWW3–2 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 3–3 · 3–1 · 2–1

HAPOEL RA'ANANA

LWWLWL2–3 · 6–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bnei Yehuda	9	+13	23
2	Ashdod	8	+12	21
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	8	+6	17
4	Hapoel Afula	9	+5	17
5	Kiryat Yam SC	9	+10	16
6	Hapoel Ra'anana	8	+8	15
7	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	8	0	14
8	Kafr Qasim	9	+3	13
9	Maccabi Bnei Raina	9	0	13
10	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	9	−3	10
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	9	−2	9
12	Ironi Modi'in	9	−4	8
13	Maccabi Herzliya	9	−4	8
14	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	8	−10	6
15	Hapoel Kfar Saba	8	−11	6
16	Hapoel Acre	9	−23	1