Hapoel Kfar Shalem v Hapoel Acre prediction · Liga Leumit

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 4–0 Hapoel Acre HAPOEL KFAR SHALEM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Kfar Shalem win~~58%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.266

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.185

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Kfar Shalem win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hapoel Kfar Shalem was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–22–21
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Kfar Shalem v Hapoel Acre
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
45′Hapoel Kfar Shalem find the net on 45′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–5
45′We published Hapoel Kfar Shalem at 58%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1–0 Hapoel Acre
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1–0 Hapoel Acre
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1–0 Hapoel Acre
56′A goal for Hapoel Kfar Shalem on 56′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
56′We published Hapoel Kfar Shalem at 58%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Hapoel Kfar Shalem 2–0 Hapoel Acre
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 58% at kick-off, 96% now
58′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–1
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
80′Hapoel Kfar Shalem score on 80′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
80′We published Hapoel Kfar Shalem at 58%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Hapoel Kfar Shalem 3–0 Hapoel Acre
89′Hapoel Kfar Shalem find the net on 89′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Hapoel Kfar Shalem 4–0 Hapoel Acre
90′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Kfar Shalem 4–0 Hapoel Acre
FTHapoel Kfar Shalem 4–0 Hapoel Acre · Hapoel Kfar Shalem win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hapoel Kfar Shalem are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Kfar Shalem 58%, draw 22%, Hapoel Acre 21%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Kfar Shalem v Hapoel AcreBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Kfar Shalem win58%

Draw22%

Hapoel Acre win21%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

Hapoel Acre

7Days since last match10

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Leumit

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Leumit

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	9	+1	17
16	Hapoel Acre	9	−23	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel kfar shalem winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

58% The market65%

Us58%

~~Market~~65%

We make Hapoel Kfar Shalem a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Kfar Shalem v Hapoel Acre~~2.16 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 17 v 1~~6 v 16

~~The market · Hapoel Kfar Shalem win~~65% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Kfar Shalem win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Kfar Shalem win	58%	65%	−7
Draw	22%	21%	+1
Hapoel Acre win	21%	14%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	65%	60%	+5
Both teams to score	62%	53%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	85%	79%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	43%	39%	+4
Hapoel Kfar Shalem or draw	79%	86%	−7
Hapoel Kfar Shalem clean sheet	30%	–	–
Hapoel Acre clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.3 3.8 2.7 1 7.0 9.6 5.4 2.2 2 7.9 9.4 5.6 2.3 3 5.7 6.7 4.0 4 3.1 3.7 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Kfar Shalem down, Hapoel Acre across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,561 Liga Leumit matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.7% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Kfar Shalem at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Acre away: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for Hapoel Kfar Shalem, 1.21 for Hapoel Acre. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ACR 1–1 KFA · KFA 1–2 ACR · KFA 4–1 ACR · ACR 0–1 KFA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 6 Sept

HAPOEL KFAR SHALEM

LDDWWW0–4 · 3–3 · 3–3 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

HAPOEL ACRE

LLLLLD0–5 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ashdod	10	+14	25
2	Bnei Yehuda	9	+13	23
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	9	+9	20
4	Kiryat Yam SC	10	+11	19
5	Hapoel Afula	10	+5	18
6	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	9	+1	17
7	Hapoel Ra'anana	9	+7	15
8	Kafr Qasim	10	+2	13
9	Maccabi Bnei Raina	9	0	13
10	Ironi Modi'in	10	−2	11
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	10	−2	10
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	10	−7	10
13	Maccabi Herzliya	10	−4	9
14	Hapoel Kfar Saba	10	−9	9
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	10	−15	6
16	Hapoel Acre	9	−23	1