Hapoel Kfar Saba v Hapoel Afula prediction · Liga Leumit

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Hapoel Kfar Saba 2–0 Hapoel Afula HAPOEL KFAR SABA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Kfar Saba win~~43%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.481

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.589

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Kfar Saba win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hapoel Kfar Saba 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–30
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Kfar Saba v Hapoel Afula
3′A goal for Hapoel Kfar Saba on 3′. 0–0 · 43–27–30
4′We said Hapoel Kfar Saba at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–17–13
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–0 Hapoel Afula
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Hapoel Kfar Saba win: 43% at kick-off, 70% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–10
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Hapoel Kfar Saba win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–0 Hapoel Afula
45′SECOND HALF Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–0 Hapoel Afula
51′We said Hapoel Kfar Saba at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
66′We said Hapoel Kfar Saba at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Hapoel Kfar Saba win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
75′We said Hapoel Kfar Saba at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
82′We said Hapoel Kfar Saba at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–0 · 91–9–1
83′Hapoel Kfar Saba find the net on 83′. 1–0 · 92–8–0
83′We said Hapoel Kfar Saba at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Hapoel Kfar Saba 2–0 Hapoel Afula
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Hapoel Kfar Saba win: 43% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Kfar Saba 2–0 Hapoel Afula
FTHapoel Kfar Saba 2–0 Hapoel Afula · Hapoel Kfar Saba win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hapoel Kfar Saba are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Kfar Saba 43%, draw 26%, Hapoel Afula 30%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Kfar Saba v Hapoel AfulaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Kfar Saba win43%

Draw26%

Hapoel Afula win30%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Kfar Saba

Hapoel Afula

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Leumit

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Hapoel Afula	10	+5	18
14	Hapoel Kfar Saba	10	−9	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel kfar saba winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market38%

Us43%

~~Market~~38%

We make Hapoel Kfar Saba a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Kfar Saba v Hapoel Afula~~1.58 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 10 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 18~~14 v 6

~~The market · Hapoel Kfar Saba win~~38% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Kfar Saba win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Kfar Saba win	43%	38%	+5
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Hapoel Afula win	30%	35%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	58%	−4
Both teams to score	58%	61%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	39%	−7
Hapoel Kfar Saba or draw	70%	65%	+5
Hapoel Kfar Saba clean sheet	28%	–	–
Hapoel Afula clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.8 6.6 4.8 2.1 1 8.3 12.2 7.3 3.1 2 7.1 8.9 5.7 2.5 3 3.8 4.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Kfar Saba down, Hapoel Afula across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,564 Liga Leumit matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Kfar Saba at home: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Afula away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Hapoel Kfar Saba, 1.28 for Hapoel Afula. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KFA 3–3 AFU · AFU 1–1 KFA · KFA 2–0 AFU · AFU 1–1 KFA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 10 Sept

HAPOEL KFAR SABA

WLLLLW2–0 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 4–0

HAPOEL AFULA

LDWDWD2–4 · 3–3 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ashdod	10	+14	25
2	Bnei Yehuda	10	+13	24
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	10	+9	21
4	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	10	+5	20
5	Kiryat Yam SC	10	+11	19
6	Hapoel Afula	10	+5	18
7	Hapoel Ra'anana	10	+7	16
8	Maccabi Bnei Raina	10	0	14
9	Kafr Qasim	10	+2	13
10	Ironi Modi'in	10	−2	11
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	10	−2	10
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	10	−7	10
13	Maccabi Herzliya	10	−4	9
14	Hapoel Kfar Saba	10	−9	9
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	10	−15	6
16	Hapoel Acre	10	−27	1