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Hapoel Kfar Saba v Ashdod

Hapoel Kfar Saba

2–4Full time

Ashdod

Liga Leumit · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:31

Hapoel Kfar Saba 2–4 Ashdod ASHDOD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ashdod win~~50%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.378

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.222

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ashdod win at 50%.
0′Much as we predicted: Ashdod was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 26–24–51
9′A goal for Ashdod on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–16–74
11′We published Ashdod at 50%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 9–16–74
13′We published Ashdod at 50%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 9–16–75
15′A goal for Ashdod on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–16–75
16′A goal for Ashdod on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–16–75
18′We published Ashdod at 50%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 9–17–75
20′19′ and it is 0–2: Ashdod have scored. 0–2 · 2–6–91
22′We published Ashdod at 50%. Our model now makes it 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
30′Hapoel Kfar Saba find the net on 31′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 92% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–2 Ashdod
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 92% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 92% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
34′⚽ GOAL · 8' Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–2 Ashdod
34′⚽ GOAL · 19' Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–2 Ashdod
34′⚽ GOAL · 31' Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–2 Ashdod
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
45′SECOND HALF Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–2 Ashdod
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Ashdod win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–3 Ashdod
67′⚽ GOAL · 69' Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–3 Ashdod
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–4 Ashdod · R. Gordana
85′⚽ GOAL · 87' Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–4 Ashdod
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Hapoel Kfar Saba 2–4 Ashdod · M. Grechkin
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Kfar Saba 2–4 Ashdod
FTHapoel Kfar Saba 2–4 Ashdod · Ashdod win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Kfar Saba win25%

Draw25%

Ashdod win50%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hapoel Kfar Saba

Ashdod

11Days since last match11

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Ashdod	8	+12	21
15	Hapoel Kfar Saba	8	−11	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ashdod winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

50% The market62%

Us50%

~~Market~~62%

We make Ashdod a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ashdod win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Kfar Saba win	25%	17%	+8
Draw	25%	21%	+3
Ashdod win	50%	62%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	55%	61%	−6
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	41%	−8
Hapoel Kfar Saba or draw	50%	38%	+12
Hapoel Kfar Saba clean sheet	18%	–	–
Ashdod clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.4 8.9 8.2 4.8 2.1 1 5.9 11.6 9.4 5.4 2.4 2 3.8 6.4 5.4 3.2 3 2.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Kfar Saba down, Ashdod across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,553 Liga Leumit matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Hapoel Kfar Saba at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ashdod away: 2.25 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Hapoel Kfar Saba, 1.73 for Ashdod. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meeting of these two in Liga Leumit since 2021 in our records. Only this competition's matches are held here: cup ties and meetings in other leagues are not, and we say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit

HAPOEL KFAR SABA

WLWLLL2–0 · 1–6 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–2

ASHDOD

WWWWWW2–1 · 4–0 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bnei Yehuda	9	+13	23
2	Ashdod	8	+12	21
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	8	+6	17
4	Hapoel Afula	9	+5	17
5	Kiryat Yam SC	9	+10	16
6	Hapoel Ra'anana	8	+8	15
7	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	8	0	14
8	Kafr Qasim	9	+3	13
9	Maccabi Bnei Raina	9	0	13
10	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	9	−3	10
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	9	−2	9
12	Ironi Modi'in	9	−4	8
13	Maccabi Herzliya	9	−4	8
14	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	8	−10	6
15	Hapoel Kfar Saba	8	−11	6
16	Hapoel Acre	9	−23	1