Hapoel Afula v Maccabi Kiryat Gat prediction · Liga Leumit

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Hapoel AfulaDrawMaccabi Kiryat Gat

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Maccabi Kiryat Gat 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maccabi Kiryat Gat are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Afula 31%, draw 28%, Maccabi Kiryat Gat 41%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Afula v Maccabi Kiryat GatBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Afula win31%

Draw28%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat win41%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Afula

Maccabi Kiryat Gat

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga Leumit

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Hapoel Afula	11	+3	18
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	11	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi kiryat gat winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Maccabi Kiryat Gat a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Afula v Maccabi Kiryat Gat~~1.14 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 17 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 11~~7 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Afula win	31%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Maccabi Kiryat Gat win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Hapoel Afula or draw	59%	–	–
Hapoel Afula clean sheet	27%	–	–
Maccabi Kiryat Gat clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.4 10.4 7.5 3.4 1 8.7 13.3 8.4 3.8 2 5.5 7.1 4.8 2.2 3 2.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Afula down, Maccabi Kiryat Gat across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,572 Liga Leumit matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Hapoel Afula at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Maccabi Kiryat Gat away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Hapoel Afula, 1.35 for Maccabi Kiryat Gat. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 17 Sept

HAPOEL AFULA

DWDWDL3–3 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–2

MACCABI KIRYAT GAT

WLLDDD1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ashdod	11	+15	28
2	Bnei Yehuda	11	+17	27
3	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	11	+8	23
4	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	11	+6	21
5	Hapoel Ra'anana	11	+8	19
6	Kiryat Yam SC	11	+7	19
7	Hapoel Afula	11	+3	18
8	Maccabi Bnei Raina	11	+6	17
9	Kafr Qasim	11	+1	13
10	Hapoel Kfar Saba	11	−7	12
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	11	−2	11
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	11	−7	11
13	Ironi Modi'in	11	−8	11
14	Maccabi Herzliya	11	−5	9
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	11	−14	9
16	Hapoel Acre	11	−28	1