Hapoel Afula v Maccabi Herzliya prediction · Liga Leumit

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:59

Hapoel Afula 0–0 Maccabi Herzliya MACCABI HERZLIYA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maccabi Herzliya win~~39%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.801

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.787

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maccabi Herzliya win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Maccabi Herzliya 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Afula v Maccabi Herzliya
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Maccabi Herzliya win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Afula 0–0 Maccabi Herzliya
45′SECOND HALF Hapoel Afula 0–0 Maccabi Herzliya
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Maccabi Herzliya win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 26–45–29
59′We said Maccabi Herzliya at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 24–48–27
65′We said Maccabi Herzliya at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–54–24
73′We said Maccabi Herzliya at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Maccabi Herzliya win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
79′We said Maccabi Herzliya at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 12–74–14
84′We said Maccabi Herzliya at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–84–8
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Maccabi Herzliya win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
90′We said Maccabi Herzliya at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Afula 0–0 Maccabi Herzliya
FTHapoel Afula 0–0 Maccabi Herzliya · Maccabi Herzliya win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maccabi Herzliya are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Afula 34%, draw 27%, Maccabi Herzliya 39%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Afula v Maccabi HerzliyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Afula win34%

Draw27%

Maccabi Herzliya win39%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Afula

Maccabi Herzliya

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Leumit

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Hapoel Afula	9	+5	17
13	Maccabi Herzliya	9	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi herzliya winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

39% The market31%

Us39%

~~Market~~31%

We make Maccabi Herzliya a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Afula v Maccabi Herzliya~~1.30 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 8~~4 v 13

~~The market · Maccabi Herzliya win~~31% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maccabi Herzliya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Afula win	34%	41%	−7
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Maccabi Herzliya win	39%	31%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	51%	52%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	56%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	74%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
Hapoel Afula or draw	61%	69%	−8
Hapoel Afula clean sheet	25%	–	–
Maccabi Herzliya clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.6 8.7 6.7 3.2 1 7.9 12.7 8.4 4.0 2 5.6 7.7 5.4 2.6 3 2.4 3.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Afula down, Maccabi Herzliya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,556 Liga Leumit matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Afula at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Maccabi Herzliya away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Hapoel Afula, 1.42 for Maccabi Herzliya. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HAP 1–0 MAC · MAC 1–0 HAP · HAP 2–3 MAC · MAC 2–2 HAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 6 Sept

HAPOEL AFULA

LLDWDW0–1 · 2–4 · 3–3 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

MACCABI HERZLIYA

DWDLLL1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ashdod	9	+14	24
2	Bnei Yehuda	9	+13	23
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	9	+9	20
4	Hapoel Afula	9	+5	17
5	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	9	+1	17
6	Kiryat Yam SC	9	+10	16
7	Hapoel Ra'anana	9	+7	15
8	Kafr Qasim	9	+3	13
9	Maccabi Bnei Raina	9	0	13
10	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	9	−3	10
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	9	−2	9
12	Ironi Modi'in	9	−4	8
13	Maccabi Herzliya	9	−4	8
14	Hapoel Kfar Saba	9	−13	6
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	9	−13	6
16	Hapoel Acre	9	−23	1