Hapoel Acre v Hapoel Ra'anana prediction · Liga Leumit

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Hapoel Acre 0–1 Hapoel Ra'anana HAPOEL RA'ANANA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Ra'anana win~~48%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.407

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.305

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Ra'anana win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hapoel Ra'anana was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 24–28–48
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Acre v Hapoel Ra'anana
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Hapoel Ra'anana win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Acre 0–0 Hapoel Ra'anana
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Hapoel Ra'anana win 40%)
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Acre 0–0 Hapoel Ra'anana
47′We said Hapoel Ra'anana at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 21–43–36
52′We said Hapoel Ra'anana at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 20–46–34
55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 19–48–33
62′We said Hapoel Ra'anana at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 17–54–29
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Hapoel Ra'anana win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
69′Hapoel Ra'anana score on 69′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 2–13–85
69′We published Hapoel Ra'anana at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Hapoel Acre 0–1 Hapoel Ra'anana
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Hapoel Ra'anana win: 48% at kick-off, 85% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Hapoel Ra'anana win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 61%)
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Hapoel Ra'anana win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
78′We published Hapoel Ra'anana at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
85′We published Hapoel Ra'anana at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Hapoel Ra'anana win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Acre 0–1 Hapoel Ra'anana
FTHapoel Acre 0–1 Hapoel Ra'anana · Hapoel Ra'anana win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hapoel Ra'anana are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Acre 24%, draw 28%, Hapoel Ra'anana 48%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Acre v Hapoel Ra'ananaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Acre win24%

Draw28%

Hapoel Ra'anana win48%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Acre

Hapoel Ra'anana

4Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Leumit

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Hapoel Ra'anana	10	+7	16
16	Hapoel Acre	10	−27	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel ra'anana winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 20 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

48% The market55%

Us48%

~~Market~~55%

We make Hapoel Ra'anana a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Acre v Hapoel Ra'anana~~0.96 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 10 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 1 v 16~~16 v 7

~~The market · Hapoel Ra'anana win~~55% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Ra'anana win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Acre win	24%	21%	+3
Draw	28%	24%	+4
Hapoel Ra'anana win	48%	55%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	44%	57%	−13
Both teams to score	48%	57%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	71%	78%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	23%	37%	−14
Hapoel Acre or draw	52%	45%	+7
Hapoel Acre clean sheet	23%	–	–
Hapoel Ra'anana clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.9 12.0 9.4 4.7 1 7.6 13.0 8.9 4.4 2 4.1 5.9 4.3 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Acre down, Hapoel Ra'anana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,564 Liga Leumit matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Leumit matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.56 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Acre at home: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Ra'anana away: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Hapoel Acre, 1.48 for Hapoel Ra'anana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.56

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ACR 1–2 ANA · ANA 2–1 ACR · ACR 0–2 ANA · ACR 2–0 ANA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 10 Sept

HAPOEL ACRE

LLLLDL0–4 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–4

HAPOEL RA'ANANA

WLWLLD3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ashdod	10	+14	25
2	Bnei Yehuda	10	+13	24
3	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	10	+9	21
4	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	10	+5	20
5	Kiryat Yam SC	10	+11	19
6	Hapoel Afula	10	+5	18
7	Hapoel Ra'anana	10	+7	16
8	Maccabi Bnei Raina	10	0	14
9	Kafr Qasim	10	+2	13
10	Ironi Modi'in	10	−2	11
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	10	−2	10
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	10	−7	10
13	Maccabi Herzliya	10	−4	9
14	Hapoel Kfar Saba	10	−9	9
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	10	−15	6
16	Hapoel Acre	10	−27	1