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Bnei Yehuda v Kiryat Yam SC

Bnei Yehuda
5–1Full time
Kiryat Yam SC

Liga Leumit · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32
Bnei Yehuda 5–1 Kiryat Yam SC BNEI YEHUDA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bnei Yehuda win40%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.538
The market’s Brier score0.317

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bnei Yehuda win at 40%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Bnei Yehuda v Kiryat Yam SC
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Bnei Yehuda 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
  4. 16′A goal for Bnei Yehuda on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–19–13
  5. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Bnei Yehuda 1–0 Kiryat Yam SC
  6. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Bnei Yehuda win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
  7. 17′We said Bnei Yehuda at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–19–13
  8. 21′Bnei Yehuda find the net on 21′. 1–0 · 68–19–12
  9. 23′We said Bnei Yehuda at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 2–0 · 88–9–4
  10. 23′⚽ GOAL · 21' Bnei Yehuda 2–0 Kiryat Yam SC
  11. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Bnei Yehuda win: 40% at kick-off, 88% now
  12. 33′We said Bnei Yehuda at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
  13. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Bnei Yehuda win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
  14. 43′A goal for Kiryat Yam SC on 43′. 2–0 · 91–7–2
  15. 43′We said Bnei Yehuda at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 2–1 · 71–20–9
  16. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Bnei Yehuda 2–1 Kiryat Yam SC
  17. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Bnei Yehuda win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
  18. 44′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 71–20–8
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Bnei Yehuda 2–1 Kiryat Yam SC
  20. 45′SECOND HALF Bnei Yehuda 2–1 Kiryat Yam SC
  21. 54′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 94–5–1
  22. 54′A goal for Bnei Yehuda on 54′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
  23. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Bnei Yehuda 3–1 Kiryat Yam SC
  24. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Bnei Yehuda win: 40% at kick-off, 94% now
  25. 57′Bnei Yehuda score on 57′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  26. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Bnei Yehuda 4–1 Kiryat Yam SC
  27. 58′We said Bnei Yehuda at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  28. 59′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  29. 65′We said Bnei Yehuda at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  30. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Bnei Yehuda win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
  31. 90′Bnei Yehuda find the net on 90′. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  32. 90′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  33. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Bnei Yehuda 5–1 Kiryat Yam SC
  34. 91′A goal for Bnei Yehuda on 90′. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  35. 93′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+3' Bnei Yehuda
  36. FTFULL TIME Bnei Yehuda 5–1 Kiryat Yam SC
  37. FTBnei Yehuda 5–1 Kiryat Yam SC · Bnei Yehuda win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bnei Yehuda are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bnei Yehuda 40%, draw 27%, Kiryat Yam SC 33%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Bnei Yehuda v Kiryat Yam SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Bnei Yehuda win40%
Draw27%
Kiryat Yam SC win33%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bnei Yehuda

Kiryat Yam SC

4Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Leumit

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Leumit

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Bnei Yehuda10+1324
5Kiryat Yam SC10+1119

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bnei yehuda winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
40% The market54%
Us40%
Market54%

We make Bnei Yehuda a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Bnei Yehuda v Kiryat Yam SC1.50 – 1.34
Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 10 SeptW4 D2 L0 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 24 v 192 v 5
The market · Bnei Yehuda win54% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55%60% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 13:41
Our probability · Bnei Yehuda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Bnei Yehuda win40%54%−14
Draw27%24%+3
Kiryat Yam SC win33%22%+11
Over 2.5 goals54%60%−6
Both teams to score58%60%−2
Over 1.5 goals78%80%−2
Over 3.5 goals32%40%−8
Bnei Yehuda or draw67%78%−11
Bnei Yehuda clean sheet27%––
Kiryat Yam SC clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%
0123450 6.9 7.1 5.3 2.4 1 8.0 12.4 7.7 3.5 2 6.5 8.6 5.7 2.6 3 3.3 4.3 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Bnei Yehuda down, Kiryat Yam SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsBNE 2–0 KIR · BNE 1–3 KIR · KIR 2–1 BNE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Leumit this season · since 10 Sept

BNEI YEHUDA

WDWWWD4–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

KIRYAT YAM SC

LWWWDW2–4 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ashdod10+1425
2Bnei Yehuda10+1324
3Hapoel Rishon LeZion10+921
4Hapoel Kfar Shalem10+520
5Kiryat Yam SC10+1119
6Hapoel Afula10+518
7Hapoel Ra'anana10+716
8Maccabi Bnei Raina10014
9Kafr Qasim10+213
10Ironi Modi'in10−211
11Maccabi Kiryat Gat10−210
12Maccabi Ahi Nazareth10−710
13Maccabi Herzliya10−49
14Hapoel Kfar Saba10−99
15Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa10−156
16Hapoel Acre10−271

The competition's standings before kick-off.