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Tzeirey Tira v Hapoel Hadera

Tzeirey Tira

0–1Full time

Hapoel Hadera

Liga Alef · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:30

Tzeirey Tira 0–1 Hapoel Hadera HAPOEL HADERA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Hadera win~~43%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.495

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.281

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Hadera win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hapoel Hadera 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 28–29–42
1′KICK-OFF Tzeirey Tira v Hapoel Hadera
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Hapoel Hadera win 37%)
45′HALF-TIME Tzeirey Tira 0–0 Hapoel Hadera
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Hapoel Hadera win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
46′SECOND HALF Tzeirey Tira 0–0 Hapoel Hadera
52′We said Hapoel Hadera at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 23–46–31
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 22–48–30
56′We said Hapoel Hadera at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 22–49–29
56′Hapoel Hadera score on 56′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 4–18–78
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Tzeirey Tira 0–1 Hapoel Hadera
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Hapoel Hadera win: 43% at kick-off, 78% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Hapoel Hadera win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 49%)
57′We said Hapoel Hadera at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 0–1 · 4–17–79
60′We said Hapoel Hadera at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Hapoel Hadera win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
72′We said Hapoel Hadera at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
79′We said Hapoel Hadera at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Hapoel Hadera win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
86′We said Hapoel Hadera at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Tzeirey Tira 0–1 Hapoel Hadera
FTTzeirey Tira 0–1 Hapoel Hadera · Hapoel Hadera win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hapoel Hadera are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tzeirey Tira 29%, draw 29%, Hapoel Hadera 43%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Tzeirey Tira v Hapoel HaderaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Tzeirey Tira win29%

Draw29%

Hapoel Hadera win43%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 18:00

RoundSouth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tzeirey Tira

Hapoel Hadera

10Days since last match10

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Alef

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel hadera winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

43% The market57%

Us43%

~~Market~~57%

We make Hapoel Hadera a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tzeirey Tira v Hapoel Hadera~~1.08 – 1.38

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 3 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 9~~35 v 15

~~The market · Hapoel Hadera win~~57% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Hadera win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tzeirey Tira win	29%	19%	+10
Draw	29%	24%	+5
Hapoel Hadera win	43%	57%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	44%	53%	−9
Both teams to score	49%	52%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	24%	33%	−9
Tzeirey Tira or draw	57%	43%	+14
Tzeirey Tira clean sheet	26%	–	–
Hapoel Hadera clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.3 10.8 8.1 3.8 1 8.3 13.3 8.3 3.9 2 5.0 6.6 4.5 2.1 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tzeirey Tira down, Hapoel Hadera across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,457 Liga Alef matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Tzeirey Tira at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Hadera away: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Tzeirey Tira, 1.38 for Hapoel Hadera. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 3 Sept

TZEIREY TIRA

LLLLLL1–4 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–3

HAPOEL HADERA

LDWDWD0–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	7	+8	17
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
4	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
5	Dimona	6	+4	15
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
15	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	6	+2	9
17	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	7	0	8
18	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
19	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
20	Hapoel Beit Shean	4	+4	7
21	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
22	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
23	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
24	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	−3	7
25	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
26	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	7	−4	6
27	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
28	Tzeirey Tamra	7	−10	6
29	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
30	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
31	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0