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Tzeirey Tamra v Ironi Baka El Garbiya

Tzeirey Tamra

1–3Full time

Ironi Baka El Garbiya

Liga Alef · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 16:30

Tzeirey Tamra 1–3 Ironi Baka El Garbiya IRONI BAKA EL GARBIYA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ironi Baka El Garbiya win~~50%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.369

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.408

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ironi Baka El Garbiya win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ironi Baka El Garbiya was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 27–23–50
1′KICK-OFF Tzeirey Tamra v Ironi Baka El Garbiya
31′Ironi Baka El Garbiya score on 31′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–17–74
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Tzeirey Tamra 0–1 Ironi Baka El Garbiya
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Ironi Baka El Garbiya win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
32′We published Ironi Baka El Garbiya at 50%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 9–17–74
33′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 0–1 · 9–17–74
41′We published Ironi Baka El Garbiya at 50%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 8–17–75
45′HALF-TIME Tzeirey Tamra 0–1 Ironi Baka El Garbiya
46′SECOND HALF Tzeirey Tamra 0–1 Ironi Baka El Garbiya
49′Tzeirey Tamra find the net on 49′. 1–1. 1–1 · 24–36–40
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Tzeirey Tamra 1–1 Ironi Baka El Garbiya
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Ironi Baka El Garbiya win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
53′We said Ironi Baka El Garbiya at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 24–38–38
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Ironi Baka El Garbiya win 39%)
61′We said Ironi Baka El Garbiya at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 22–44–34
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Ironi Baka El Garbiya win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
70′We said Ironi Baka El Garbiya at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 18–53–28
73′A goal for Ironi Baka El Garbiya on 73′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–83
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Tzeirey Tamra 1–2 Ironi Baka El Garbiya
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Ironi Baka El Garbiya win: 50% at kick-off, 83% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Ironi Baka El Garbiya win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 58%)
74′We published Ironi Baka El Garbiya at 50%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–2 · 2–14–84
76′We published Ironi Baka El Garbiya at 50%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
82′We published Ironi Baka El Garbiya at 50%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Ironi Baka El Garbiya win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
86′D. A. Saada scores for Ironi Baka El Garbiya on 68′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–93
89′We published Ironi Baka El Garbiya at 50%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
92′Ironi Baka El Garbiya score on 90′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
92′We published Ironi Baka El Garbiya at 50%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Tzeirey Tamra 1–3 Ironi Baka El Garbiya
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Ironi Baka El Garbiya win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
94′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Tzeirey Tamra 1–3 Ironi Baka El Garbiya
FTTzeirey Tamra 1–3 Ironi Baka El Garbiya · Ironi Baka El Garbiya win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ironi Baka El Garbiya are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tzeirey Tamra 27%, draw 23%, Ironi Baka El Garbiya 50%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Tzeirey Tamra v Ironi Baka El GarbiyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Tzeirey Tamra win27%

Draw23%

Ironi Baka El Garbiya win50%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 14:00

RoundNorth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tzeirey Tamra

Ironi Baka El Garbiya

11Days since last match11

Last match: 8 Oct · Liga Alef

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
25	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
26	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ironi baka el garbiya winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

50% The market48%

Us50%

~~Market~~48%

We make Ironi Baka El Garbiya a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tzeirey Tamra v Ironi Baka El Garbiya~~1.44 – 2.05

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 5~~25 v 26

~~The market · Ironi Baka El Garbiya win~~48% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ironi Baka El Garbiya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tzeirey Tamra win	27%	26%	+1
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Ironi Baka El Garbiya win	50%	48%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	66%	55%	+11
Both teams to score	65%	58%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	86%	78%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	45%	35%	+10
Tzeirey Tamra or draw	50%	52%	−2
Tzeirey Tamra clean sheet	14%	–	–
Ironi Baka El Garbiya clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.5 5.9 6.5 4.4 2.3 1 4.0 9.8 8.7 5.8 3.1 2 3.3 6.2 6.0 4.1 2.1 3 3.0 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tzeirey Tamra down, Ironi Baka El Garbiya across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,457 Liga Alef matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tzeirey Tamra at home: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ironi Baka El Garbiya away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Tzeirey Tamra, 2.05 for Ironi Baka El Garbiya. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TZE 1–0 IRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 4 Sept

TZEIREY TAMRA

LLLWWL1–6 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–1

IRONI BAKA EL GARBIYA

DLDWLL0–0 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	7	+8	17
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
4	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
5	Dimona	6	+4	15
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
15	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
18	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
19	Hapoel Beit Shean	4	+4	7
20	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
21	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
22	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
23	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	6	−3	6
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
25	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
26	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5
27	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
28	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	6	−4	5
29	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
30	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	6	−4	4
31	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0