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Tira v Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel

Tira

2–0Full time

Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel

Liga Alef · THU 22 OCT

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 21:00

Tira 2–0 Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel TIRA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Tira win~~74%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.102

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.112

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tira win at 74%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tira was 74% before kick-off and our model makes it 74% now. 0–0 · 74–17–9
1′KICK-OFF Tira v Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel
3′Tira score on 2′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 91–6–3
3′We published Tira at 74%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–6–3
3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Tira 1–0 Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Tira win: 74% at kick-off, 91% now
28′We published Tira at 74%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Tira 2–0 Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Tira win: 74% at kick-off, 98% now
29′Tira find the net on 29′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
45′HALF-TIME Tira 2–0 Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel
45′SECOND HALF Tira 2–0 Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel
46′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
74′We published Tira at 74%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Tira 2–0 Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel
FTTira 2–0 Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel · Tira win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tira are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tira 74%, draw 17%, Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 9%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Tira v Hapoel Tirat HaCarmelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Tira win74%

Draw17%

Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel win9%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 18:00

RoundNorth · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tira

Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel

4Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Alef

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Alef

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	7	+8	17
33	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	7	−9	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tira winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

74% The market73%

Us74%

~~Market~~73%

We make Tira a 74% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.5–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tira v Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel~~2.49 – 0.68

~~Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 10 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 4~~1 v 33

~~The market · Tira win~~73% · ours 74%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tira win The market, margin stripped

Published at 72%, 74% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tira win	74%	73%	+1
Draw	17%	17%	0
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel win	9%	10%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%	0
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	40%	−1
Tira or draw	91%	90%	+1
Tira clean sheet	52%	–	–
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.6%

0123450 5.5 2.6 1 10.2 7.8 2.6 2 12.6 8.3 3.0 3 10.2 6.6 2.3 4 6.5 4.1 5 3.5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Tira down, Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel across0–5 goals a side shown (94.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,469 Liga Alef matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.6% of games this season, across 121 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tira at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.49 goals for Tira, 0.68 for Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~HAP 2–0 TIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 10 Sept

TIRA

WDDWWW4–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

HAPOEL TIRAT HACARMEL

WLDLLL4–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	7	+8	17
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Beitar Nahariya	7	+8	16
4	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
5	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
6	Dimona	6	+4	15
7	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	7	+4	15
8	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	7	+6	13
9	Holon Yermiyahu	7	+5	13
10	Hapoel Herzliya	7	+4	13
11	Hapoel Hadera	7	+5	12
12	FC Jerusalem	7	+2	11
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
14	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
15	Maccabi Yavne	7	+4	9
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	6	+2	9
17	Hapoel Beit Shean	5	+4	8
18	Hapoel Marmorek	7	+1	8
19	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	7	0	8
20	Hapoel Sderot	7	−1	8
21	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
22	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
23	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
24	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
25	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	−3	7
26	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	7	−2	6
27	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	7	−4	6
28	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
29	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	7	−4	6
30	Tzeirey Tamra	7	−10	6
31	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	7	−11	5
32	Kfar Saba 1928	7	−4	4
33	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	7	−9	4
34	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
35	Tzeirey Tira	7	−12	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	7	−19	0