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Shimshon Tel Aviv v Nordia Jerusalem

Shimshon Tel Aviv

3–0Full time

Nordia Jerusalem

Liga Alef · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 14:26

Shimshon Tel Aviv 3–0 Nordia Jerusalem SHIMSHON TEL AVIV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shimshon Tel Aviv win~~65%

~~The market said~~81%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.183

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.057

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shimshon Tel Aviv win at 65%.
1′Much as we predicted: Shimshon Tel Aviv was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–20–15
1′KICK-OFF Shimshon Tel Aviv v Nordia Jerusalem
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Shimshon Tel Aviv win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
43′We said Shimshon Tel Aviv at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–31–16
45′SECOND HALF Shimshon Tel Aviv 0–0 Nordia Jerusalem
46′We published Shimshon Tel Aviv at 65%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Shimshon Tel Aviv 1–0 Nordia Jerusalem
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Shimshon Tel Aviv win: 65% at kick-off, 84% now
47′Shimshon Tel Aviv score on 47′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–13–4
48′HALF-TIME Shimshon Tel Aviv 0–0 Nordia Jerusalem
55′We published Shimshon Tel Aviv at 65%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–3
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Shimshon Tel Aviv win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
62′48′: Y. Falah on the scoresheet for Shimshon Tel Aviv, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–2
75′We published Shimshon Tel Aviv at 65%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Shimshon Tel Aviv 2–0 Nordia Jerusalem
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Shimshon Tel Aviv win: 65% at kick-off, 99% now
76′Shimshon Tel Aviv find the net on 75′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
80′We published Shimshon Tel Aviv at 65%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Shimshon Tel Aviv 3–0 Nordia Jerusalem
88′A goal for Shimshon Tel Aviv on 88′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
94′Full time, 3–0. We called Shimshon Tel Aviv at 65% — that one lands. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Shimshon Tel Aviv 3–0 Nordia Jerusalem
FTShimshon Tel Aviv 3–0 Nordia Jerusalem · Shimshon Tel Aviv win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shimshon Tel Aviv are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shimshon Tel Aviv 65%, draw 19%, Nordia Jerusalem 15%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Shimshon Tel Aviv v Nordia JerusalemBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Shimshon Tel Aviv win65%

Draw19%

Nordia Jerusalem win15%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 11:35

RoundSouth · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shimshon Tel Aviv

Nordia Jerusalem

5Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Alef

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Alef

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
36	Nordia Jerusalem	7	−19	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shimshon tel aviv winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

65% The market81%

Us65%

~~Market~~81%

We make Shimshon Tel Aviv a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shimshon Tel Aviv v Nordia Jerusalem~~2.45 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 9 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 16 v 0~~4 v 36

~~The market · Shimshon Tel Aviv win~~81% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shimshon Tel Aviv win The market, margin stripped

Published at 63%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shimshon Tel Aviv win	65%	81%	−16
Draw	19%	13%	+6
Nordia Jerusalem win	15%	6%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	64%	62%	+2
Both teams to score	56%	39%	+17
Over 1.5 goals	84%	81%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	44%	41%	+3
Shimshon Tel Aviv or draw	85%	94%	−9
Shimshon Tel Aviv clean sheet	38%	–	–
Nordia Jerusalem clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%

0123450 4.8 3.4 2.2 1 7.5 8.9 4.3 2 8.9 8.6 4.4 3 6.9 6.4 3.2 4 4.4 4.0 5 2.5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Shimshon Tel Aviv down, Nordia Jerusalem across0–5 goals a side shown (93.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,471 Liga Alef matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.6% of games this season, across 123 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shimshon Tel Aviv at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Nordia Jerusalem away: 0.83 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.45 goals for Shimshon Tel Aviv, 1.00 for Nordia Jerusalem. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SHI 1–1 NOR · NOR 1–0 SHI · SHI 2–4 NOR · NOR 1–0 SHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 9 Sept

SHIMSHON TEL AVIV

DWWLWW2–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0

NORDIA JERUSALEM

LLLLLL1–3 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 0–5 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	8	+10	20
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Beitar Nahariya	7	+8	16
4	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
5	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
6	Dimona	6	+4	15
7	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	7	+4	15
8	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	7	+6	13
9	Holon Yermiyahu	7	+5	13
10	Hapoel Herzliya	8	0	13
11	Hapoel Hadera	7	+5	12
12	FC Jerusalem	7	+2	11
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
14	Hapoel Azor	7	+2	11
15	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
16	Maccabi Yavne	7	+4	9
17	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	6	+2	9
18	Hapoel Beit Shean	5	+4	8
19	Hapoel Marmorek	7	+1	8
20	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	7	0	8
21	Hapoel Sderot	7	−1	8
22	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
23	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
24	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
25	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	−3	7
26	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	7	−2	6
27	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	7	−4	6
28	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
29	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	7	−4	6
30	Tzeirey Tamra	7	−10	6
31	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	7	−11	5
32	Kfar Saba 1928	7	−4	4
33	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	8	−11	4
34	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
35	Tzeirey Tira	7	−12	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	7	−19	0