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Nordia Jerusalem v Hapoel Marmorek

Nordia Jerusalem

1–4Full time

Hapoel Marmorek

Liga Alef · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 19:01

Nordia Jerusalem 1–4 Hapoel Marmorek HAPOEL MARMOREK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Marmorek win~~39%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.560

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.180

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Marmorek win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hapoel Marmorek was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 34–27–39
1′KICK-OFF Nordia Jerusalem v Hapoel Marmorek
17′Hapoel Marmorek find the net on 17′. 0–0 · 32–30–37
17′We published Hapoel Marmorek at 39%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 13–19–68
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Nordia Jerusalem 0–1 Hapoel Marmorek
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Hapoel Marmorek win: 39% at kick-off, 68% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Hapoel Marmorek win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 11–20–69
34′We published Hapoel Marmorek at 39%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
45′HALF-TIME Nordia Jerusalem 0–1 Hapoel Marmorek
45′SECOND HALF Nordia Jerusalem 0–1 Hapoel Marmorek
52′A goal for Hapoel Marmorek on 52′. 0–1 · 7–20–73
53′We published Hapoel Marmorek at 39%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Nordia Jerusalem 0–2 Hapoel Marmorek
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Hapoel Marmorek win: 39% at kick-off, 94% now
58′We published Hapoel Marmorek at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
60′Nordia Jerusalem find the net on 60′. 0–2 · 1–4–95
61′We published Hapoel Marmorek at 39%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–2 · 5–19–77
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Nordia Jerusalem 1–2 Hapoel Marmorek
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Hapoel Marmorek win: 39% at kick-off, 77% now
62′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–19–77
68′We published Hapoel Marmorek at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
76′We published Hapoel Marmorek at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Hapoel Marmorek win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
85′A goal for Hapoel Marmorek on 85′. 1–2 · 0–7–93
86′We published Hapoel Marmorek at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
86′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Nordia Jerusalem 1–3 Hapoel Marmorek
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Hapoel Marmorek win: 39% at kick-off, over 99% now
93′Hapoel Marmorek find the net on 90′. 1–3 · 0–0–100
93′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Nordia Jerusalem 1–4 Hapoel Marmorek
FTFULL TIME Nordia Jerusalem 1–4 Hapoel Marmorek
FTNordia Jerusalem 1–4 Hapoel Marmorek · Hapoel Marmorek win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hapoel Marmorek are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nordia Jerusalem 34%, draw 27%, Hapoel Marmorek 39%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Nordia Jerusalem v Hapoel MarmorekBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Nordia Jerusalem win34%

Draw27%

Hapoel Marmorek win39%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 16:30

RoundSouth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nordia Jerusalem

Hapoel Marmorek

11Days since last match11

Last match: 8 Oct · Liga Alef

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
28	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel marmorek winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

39% The market66%

Us39%

~~Market~~66%

We make Hapoel Marmorek a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 27 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nordia Jerusalem v Hapoel Marmorek~~1.30 – 1.43

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 3 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 0 v 5~~36 v 28

~~The market · Hapoel Marmorek win~~66% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Marmorek win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nordia Jerusalem win	34%	14%	+20
Draw	27%	21%	+6
Hapoel Marmorek win	39%	66%	−27
Over 2.5 goals	51%	60%	−9
Both teams to score	54%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	80%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	40%	−11
Nordia Jerusalem or draw	61%	34%	+27
Nordia Jerusalem clean sheet	25%	–	–
Hapoel Marmorek clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.3 8.4 6.6 3.2 1 7.7 12.6 8.1 3.9 2 5.7 7.5 5.2 2.5 3 2.5 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nordia Jerusalem down, Hapoel Marmorek across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,457 Liga Alef matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.43 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nordia Jerusalem at home: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Marmorek away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Nordia Jerusalem, 1.43 for Hapoel Marmorek. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.43

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~HAP 0–3 NOR · HAP 0–1 NOR · NOR 2–1 HAP · NOR 1–1 HAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 3 Sept

NORDIA JERUSALEM

LLLLLL0–2 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 0–5

HAPOEL MARMOREK

WLLLDD1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	7	+8	17
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
4	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
5	Dimona	6	+4	15
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
15	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
18	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
19	Hapoel Beit Shean	4	+4	7
20	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
21	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
22	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
23	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	−3	7
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
25	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
26	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
27	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5
28	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
29	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	6	−4	5
30	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
31	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0