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Maccabi Yavne v Holon Yermiyahu

Maccabi Yavne

1–3Full time

Holon Yermiyahu

Liga Alef · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 19:27

Maccabi Yavne 1–3 Holon Yermiyahu MACCABI YAVNE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maccabi Yavne win~~50%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.919

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.919

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maccabi Yavne win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Maccabi Yavne 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–27–23
1′KICK-OFF Maccabi Yavne v Holon Yermiyahu
12′We said Maccabi Yavne at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–15–8
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Maccabi Yavne 1–0 Holon Yermiyahu
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Maccabi Yavne win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
13′A goal for Maccabi Yavne on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–15–8
15′M. Maman scores for Maccabi Yavne on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–15–8
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Maccabi Yavne 1–1 Holon Yermiyahu
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Maccabi Yavne win: 50% at kick-off, 47% now
20′Holon Yermiyahu score on 19′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 47–30–23
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Maccabi Yavne win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
45′A goal for Maccabi Yavne on 44′. 1–1 · 40–40–21
45′HALF-TIME Maccabi Yavne 1–1 Holon Yermiyahu
45′SECOND HALF Maccabi Yavne 1–1 Holon Yermiyahu
46′20′: A. Masri on the scoresheet for Holon Yermiyahu, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 39–40–21
48′We said Maccabi Yavne at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–41–20
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Maccabi Yavne win 40%)
51′🟥 RED CARD · 51' Maccabi Yavne
55′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–1 · 35–46–19
57′We said Maccabi Yavne at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–47–19
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Maccabi Yavne win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
64′We said Maccabi Yavne at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–23–70
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Maccabi Yavne 1–2 Holon Yermiyahu
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Maccabi Yavne win: 50% at kick-off, 7% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Holon Yermiyahu win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 54%)
65′Holon Yermiyahu find the net on 65′. 1–2. 1–2 · 6–23–71
65′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 6–23–71
70′We said Maccabi Yavne at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
84′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–1–99
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Maccabi Yavne 1–3 Holon Yermiyahu
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Maccabi Yavne win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
85′A goal for Holon Yermiyahu on 85′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
94′Maccabi Yavne are down to ten from 52′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Maccabi Yavne 1–3 Holon Yermiyahu
FTMaccabi Yavne 1–3 Holon Yermiyahu · Maccabi Yavne win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maccabi Yavne are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maccabi Yavne 50%, draw 27%, Holon Yermiyahu 23%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Maccabi Yavne v Holon YermiyahuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Maccabi Yavne win50%

Draw27%

Holon Yermiyahu win23%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 16:45

RoundSouth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maccabi Yavne

Holon Yermiyahu

7Days since last match11

Last match: 12 Oct · State Cup

Last match: 8 Oct · Liga Alef

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi yavne winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

50% The market50%

Us50%

~~Market~~50%

We make Maccabi Yavne a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maccabi Yavne v Holon Yermiyahu~~1.63 – 1.00

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 3 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~14 v 12

~~The market · Maccabi Yavne win~~50% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maccabi Yavne win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi Yavne win	50%	50%	0
Draw	27%	27%	0
Holon Yermiyahu win	23%	23%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	31%	−4
Maccabi Yavne or draw	77%	77%	0
Maccabi Yavne clean sheet	38%	–	–
Holon Yermiyahu clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.9 6.4 3.8 1 10.8 12.3 5.7 2.0 2 9.3 8.9 4.5 3 5.1 4.9 2.4 4 2.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi Yavne down, Holon Yermiyahu across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,457 Liga Alef matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maccabi Yavne at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Holon Yermiyahu away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Maccabi Yavne, 1.00 for Holon Yermiyahu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAC 1–1 HOL · HOL 2–1 MAC · MAC 1–0 HOL · HOL 1–0 MAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 3 Sept

MACCABI YAVNE

WLDDWD3–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 0–0

HOLON YERMIYAHU

DWLWLW0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	7	+8	17
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
4	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
5	Dimona	6	+4	15
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
15	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
18	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
19	Hapoel Beit Shean	4	+4	7
20	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
21	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
22	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
23	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	−3	7
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
25	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
26	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
27	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5
28	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
29	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	6	−4	5
30	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
31	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0