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Maccabi Neve Sha'anan v Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

1–2Full time

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed

Liga Alef · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 15:31

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 1–2 Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed MACCABI NEVE SHA'ANAN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win~~55%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.016

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.910

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Maccabi Neve Sha'anan was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–20
1′KICK-OFF Maccabi Neve Sha'anan v Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
45′We said Maccabi Neve Sha'anan at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–38–19
45′HALF-TIME Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 0–0 Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
46′SECOND HALF Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 0–0 Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
52′Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed find the net on 51′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–27–60
52′We said Maccabi Neve Sha'anan at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–27–60
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 0–1 Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win: 55% at kick-off, 13% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win 41%)
61′We said Maccabi Neve Sha'anan at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–65
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
72′We said Maccabi Neve Sha'anan at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–74
90′A goal for Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed on 89′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 0–2 Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
93′Maccabi Neve Sha'anan score on 90′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–3–97
93′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–3–97
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 1–2 Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
FTFULL TIME Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 1–2 Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
FTMaccabi Neve Sha'anan 1–2 Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed · Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 55%, draw 25%, Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 20%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Maccabi Neve Sha'anan v Maccabi Nujeidat AhmedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win55%

Draw25%

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed win20%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 13:00

RoundNorth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed

10Days since last match10

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Alef

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
23	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	6	−3	6
30	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	6	−4	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi neve sha'anan winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

55% The market51%

Us55%

~~Market~~51%

We make Maccabi Neve Sha'anan a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maccabi Neve Sha'anan v Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed~~1.80 – 0.96

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 4~~23 v 30

~~The market · Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win~~51% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win	55%	51%	+4
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed win	20%	23%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	53%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	33%	−3
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan or draw	80%	77%	+3
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan clean sheet	39%	–	–
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 8.0 5.4 3.1 1 10.6 11.5 5.1 2 10.0 9.2 4.4 3 6.0 5.5 2.6 4 2.9 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi Neve Sha'anan down, Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,457 Liga Alef matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Maccabi Neve Sha'anan, 0.96 for Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NEV 1–2 NUJ · NUJ 1–1 NEV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 4 Sept

MACCABI NEVE SHA'ANAN

DDDLLW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 2–1

MACCABI NUJEIDAT AHMED

LLLWLD0–1 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	7	+8	17
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
4	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
5	Dimona	6	+4	15
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
15	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
18	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
19	Hapoel Beit Shean	4	+4	7
20	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
21	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
22	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
23	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	6	−3	6
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
25	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
26	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5
27	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
28	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	6	−4	5
29	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
30	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	6	−4	4
31	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0