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Maccabi Kiryat Malachi v Ironi Beit Shemesh

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi

3–3Full time

Ironi Beit Shemesh

Liga Alef · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 3–3 Ironi Beit Shemesh MACCABI KIRYAT MALACHI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win~~53%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.880

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.989

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Maccabi Kiryat Malachi was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–26–22
1′KICK-OFF Maccabi Kiryat Malachi v Ironi Beit Shemesh
11′Maccabi Kiryat Malachi find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–14–8
11′We published Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at 53%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–14–8
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 1–0 Ironi Beit Shemesh
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win: 53% at kick-off, 78% now
18′A goal for Maccabi Kiryat Malachi on 18′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
18′We published Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at 53%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–2
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 2–0 Ironi Beit Shemesh
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
39′We published Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at 53%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
42′Maccabi Kiryat Malachi score on 41′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
42′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 3–0 Ironi Beit Shemesh
45′HALF-TIME Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 3–0 Ironi Beit Shemesh
46′SECOND HALF Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 3–0 Ironi Beit Shemesh
55′We published Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at 53%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
58′Ironi Beit Shemesh find the net on 58′. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
58′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–3–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 3–1 Ironi Beit Shemesh
67′A goal for Ironi Beit Shemesh on 67′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 84–14–2
67′We published Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at 53%. Our model now makes it 84%. 3–2 · 84–14–2
67′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 84–14–2
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 3–2 Ironi Beit Shemesh
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win: 53% at kick-off, 84% now
68′We published Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at 53%. Our model now makes it 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–2
70′D. Azaria scores for Ironi Beit Shemesh on 66′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 86–13–2
73′Ironi Beit Shemesh score on 73′ to make it 3–3. 3–3 · 24–63–13
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 3–3 Ironi Beit Shemesh
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win: 53% at kick-off, 24% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win 24%)
74′We said Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 3–3 · 23–65–13
74′6 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 23–65–13
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
78′We said Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 3–3 · 18–71–10
82′We said Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 3–3 · 13–79–8
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
86′We said Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 3–3 · 9–86–5
92′We said Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–3 · 4–94–2
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 3–3 Ironi Beit Shemesh
FTMaccabi Kiryat Malachi 3–3 Ironi Beit Shemesh · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 53%, draw 25%, Ironi Beit Shemesh 22%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Maccabi Kiryat Malachi v Ironi Beit ShemeshBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win53%

Draw25%

Ironi Beit Shemesh win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:05

RoundSouth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi

Ironi Beit Shemesh

6Days since last match9

Last match: 12 Oct · State Cup

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Alef

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	6	+9	14
22	Ironi Beit Shemesh	6	−6	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi kiryat malachi winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

53% The market62%

Us53%

~~Market~~62%

We make Maccabi Kiryat Malachi a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi v Ironi Beit Shemesh~~1.76 – 1.03

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 3 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 7~~3 v 22

~~The market · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win~~62% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win	53%	62%	−9
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Ironi Beit Shemesh win	22%	15%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	52%	51%	+1
Both teams to score	53%	48%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	73%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	31%	32%	−1
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi or draw	78%	85%	−7
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi clean sheet	37%	–	–
Ironi Beit Shemesh clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.8 5.6 3.5 1 9.9 11.8 5.6 2.0 2 9.3 9.1 4.7 3 5.5 5.3 2.7 4 2.6 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi Kiryat Malachi down, Ironi Beit Shemesh across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,454 Liga Alef matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ironi Beit Shemesh away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, 1.03 for Ironi Beit Shemesh. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 3 Sept

MACCABI KIRYAT MALACHI

DWWWDW1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

IRONI BEIT SHEMESH

LLDWLW0–2 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–5 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
2	Dimona	6	+4	15
3	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	6	+9	14
4	Tira	6	+7	14
5	Shimshon Tel Aviv	6	+7	13
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
15	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
18	Hapoel Beit Shean	4	+4	7
19	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	5	+1	7
20	Maccabi Ashdod	6	+1	7
21	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
22	Ironi Beit Shemesh	6	−6	7
23	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	6	−3	6
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
25	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
26	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5
27	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
28	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	6	−4	5
29	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
30	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	6	−4	4
31	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0