Maccabi Kiryat Malachi v Holon Yermiyahu prediction · Liga Alef

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Close to call, with Maccabi Kiryat Malachi just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 36%, draw 29%, Holon Yermiyahu 34%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Maccabi Kiryat Malachi v Holon YermiyahuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · postponed, not graded

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win36%

Draw29%

Holon Yermiyahu win34%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundSouth · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi

Holon Yermiyahu

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga Alef

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Holon Yermiyahu	8	+8	16
7	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	8	+8	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi kiryat malachi winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · postponed, not graded

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Maccabi Kiryat Malachi a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi v Holon Yermiyahu~~1.25 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 17 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 16~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win	36%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Holon Yermiyahu win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi or draw	66%	–	–
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi clean sheet	31%	–	–
Holon Yermiyahu clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.4 9.5 6.3 2.6 1 9.8 13.5 7.4 3.0 2 6.7 7.6 4.5 3 2.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi Kiryat Malachi down, Holon Yermiyahu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,484 Liga Alef matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.2% of games this season, across 136 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Holon Yermiyahu away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Maccabi Kiryat Malachi, 1.20 for Holon Yermiyahu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HOL 0–0 MAC · MAC 1–0 HOL · MAC 1–1 HOL · HOL 2–1 MAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 17 Sept

MACCABI KIRYAT MALACHI

WWDWDL3–0 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 0–1

HOLON YERMIYAHU

LWLWWW1–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 3–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	8	+10	20
2	Ironi Nesher	8	+18	19
3	Shimshon Tel Aviv	8	+11	19
4	Dimona	7	+6	18
5	Holon Yermiyahu	8	+8	16
6	Beitar Nahariya	8	+6	16
7	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	8	+8	15
8	Hapoel Hadera	8	+6	15
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	8	+2	15
10	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	8	+6	14
11	Hapoel Herzliya	8	0	13
12	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	7	+3	12
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	7	+2	12
14	Hapoel Beit Shean	6	+6	11
15	Hapoel Sderot	8	+4	11
16	Hapoel Azor	7	+2	11
17	Ironi Beit Shemesh	8	−1	11
18	FC Jerusalem	8	−3	11
19	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	7	+2	10
20	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	8	0	10
21	Maccabi Yavne	7	+4	9
22	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	8	0	9
23	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	8	−2	9
24	Hapoel Marmorek	7	+1	8
25	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	8	−1	8
26	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
27	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	8	−4	7
28	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	8	−6	6
29	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	8	−7	6
30	Tzeirey Tamra	7	−10	6
31	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	8	−15	5
32	Kfar Saba 1928	7	−4	4
33	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	8	−11	4
34	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
35	Tzeirey Tira	8	−15	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	8	−22	0