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Maccabi K. Ata Bialik v Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik

1–2Full time

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

Liga Alef · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 14:32

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 1–2 Maccabi Neve Sha'anan MACCABI K. ATA BIALIK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win~~55%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.981

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.062

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win55%

Draw23%

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 11:40

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi k. ata bialik winPublished 9 Oct 11:32

55% The market59%

Us55%

~~Market~~59%

We make Maccabi K. Ata Bialik a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · maccabi k. ata bialik win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 60% to 59% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win	55%	59%	−3
Draw	23%	23%	+1
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win	21%	18%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	59%	58%	+1
Both teams to score	57%	55%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	38%	−1
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik or draw	79%	82%	−3
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik clean sheet	33%	–	–
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 6.0 4.6 3.1 1 8.3 10.6 5.5 2.1 2 8.5 9.1 5.1 3 5.6 5.9 3.3 4 2.9 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi K. Ata Bialik down, Maccabi Neve Sha'anan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,442 Liga Alef matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Maccabi Neve Sha'anan away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Maccabi K. Ata Bialik, 1.13 for Maccabi Neve Sha'anan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MAC 3–5 MAC · MAC 2–0 MAC

Form · last six in Liga Alef

MACCABI K. ATA BIALIK

DDWWWL0–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 5–3 · 0–1

MACCABI NEVE SHA'ANAN

WDDDLL2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	6	+7	14
2	Ironi Nesher	6	+13	13
3	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
4	Beitar Nahariya	5	+4	12
5	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
6	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
7	Dimona	5	+1	12
8	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	5	+8	11
9	FC Jerusalem	5	+5	11
10	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	5	+7	10
11	Shimshon Tel Aviv	5	+4	10
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	5	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	5	+6	8
15	Hapoel Hadera	5	+4	8
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
18	Hapoel Sderot	5	+2	7
19	Maccabi Ashdod	6	+1	7
20	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	4	+1	6
21	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
22	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5
23	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	5	−3	5
25	Kfar Saba 1928	5	0	4
26	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	5	−1	4
27	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	5	−4	4
28	Ironi Beit Shemesh	5	−8	4
29	Hapoel Beit Shean	2	0	3
30	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	5	−4	3
31	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
32	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	5	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	5	−12	1
35	Tzeirey Tira	5	−9	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0