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Maccabi K. Ata Bialik v Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik

1–3Full time

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Liga Alef · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 12:01

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 1–3 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm MACCABI K. ATA BIALIK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win~~50%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.871

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.754

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–25
1′KICK-OFF Maccabi K. Ata Bialik v Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
16′A goal for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm on 15′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 25–23–52
16′We said Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–23–52
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 0–1 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win: 50% at kick-off, 25% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win 48%)
19′We said Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–23–53
28′PENALTY MISSED · 28' Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 21–24–55
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
35′We said Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
42′Hapoel Umm al-Fahm score on 42′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 5–11–84
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 0–2 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win: 50% at kick-off, 5% now
43′We said Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–11–84
45′We said Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
45′HALF-TIME Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 1–2 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
46′SECOND HALF Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 1–2 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
48′Maccabi K. Ata Bialik find the net on 45′. 1–2. 1–2 · 14–25–61
48′We said Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–25–61
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 1–2 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win: 50% at kick-off, 14% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 1–3 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
FTMaccabi K. Ata Bialik 1–3 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm · Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 50%, draw 24%, Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 25%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Maccabi K. Ata Bialik v Hapoel Umm al-FahmBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win50%

Draw24%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win25%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 09:30

RoundNorth · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

7Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Alef

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Alef

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
23	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi k. ata bialik winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 23 Oct 04:19 · locked at kick-off

50% The market45%

Us50%

~~Market~~45%

We make Maccabi K. Ata Bialik a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maccabi K. Ata Bialik v Hapoel Umm al-Fahm~~1.85 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 7~~15 v 23

~~The market · Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win~~45% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win	50%	45%	+5
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win	25%	30%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	59%	59%	0
Both teams to score	59%	61%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	39%	−2
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik or draw	75%	70%	+5
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik clean sheet	30%	–	–
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.0 5.0 3.6 1 7.8 11.1 6.2 2.7 2 7.7 9.1 5.5 2.4 3 4.7 5.6 3.4 4 2.3 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi K. Ata Bialik down, Hapoel Umm al-Fahm across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,471 Liga Alef matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.6% of games this season, across 123 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Umm al-Fahm away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Maccabi K. Ata Bialik, 1.24 for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MAC 0–0 HAP · HAP 3–5 MAC · HAP 2–0 MAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 5 Sept

MACCABI K. ATA BIALIK

WWWLLL3–1 · 4–0 · 5–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–4

HAPOEL UMM AL-FAHM

DWDDDL2–2 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	8	+10	20
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Beitar Nahariya	7	+8	16
4	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
5	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
6	Dimona	6	+4	15
7	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	7	+4	15
8	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	7	+6	13
9	Holon Yermiyahu	7	+5	13
10	Hapoel Herzliya	8	0	13
11	Hapoel Hadera	7	+5	12
12	FC Jerusalem	7	+2	11
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
14	Hapoel Azor	7	+2	11
15	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
16	Maccabi Yavne	7	+4	9
17	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	6	+2	9
18	Hapoel Beit Shean	5	+4	8
19	Hapoel Marmorek	7	+1	8
20	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	7	0	8
21	Hapoel Sderot	7	−1	8
22	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
23	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
24	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
25	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	−3	7
26	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	7	−2	6
27	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	7	−4	6
28	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
29	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	7	−4	6
30	Tzeirey Tamra	7	−10	6
31	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	7	−11	5
32	Kfar Saba 1928	7	−4	4
33	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	8	−11	4
34	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
35	Tzeirey Tira	7	−12	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	7	−19	0