Home › Football › Liga Alef › Maccabi Ashdod v Shimshon Tel Aviv

Maccabi Ashdod v Shimshon Tel Aviv

Maccabi Ashdod

0–1Full time

Shimshon Tel Aviv

Liga Alef · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:31

Maccabi Ashdod 0–1 Shimshon Tel Aviv SHIMSHON TEL AVIV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shimshon Tel Aviv win~~39%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.569

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.592

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shimshon Tel Aviv win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Shimshon Tel Aviv was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 35–27–39
1′KICK-OFF Maccabi Ashdod v Shimshon Tel Aviv
31′Shimshon Tel Aviv score on 31′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–20–68
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Maccabi Ashdod 0–1 Shimshon Tel Aviv
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Shimshon Tel Aviv win: 39% at kick-off, 68% now
33′We published Shimshon Tel Aviv at 39%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 11–20–68
34′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 11–20–69
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Shimshon Tel Aviv win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
40′We published Shimshon Tel Aviv at 39%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–21–70
45′HALF-TIME Maccabi Ashdod 0–1 Shimshon Tel Aviv
46′SECOND HALF Maccabi Ashdod 0–1 Shimshon Tel Aviv
47′32′: I. Goldstein on the scoresheet for Shimshon Tel Aviv, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–21–71
60′We published Shimshon Tel Aviv at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Shimshon Tel Aviv win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
69′We published Shimshon Tel Aviv at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
77′We published Shimshon Tel Aviv at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Shimshon Tel Aviv win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
82′We published Shimshon Tel Aviv at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
89′We published Shimshon Tel Aviv at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Maccabi Ashdod 0–1 Shimshon Tel Aviv
FTMaccabi Ashdod 0–1 Shimshon Tel Aviv · Shimshon Tel Aviv win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Shimshon Tel Aviv just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Maccabi Ashdod 35%, draw 27%, Shimshon Tel Aviv 39%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Maccabi Ashdod v Shimshon Tel AvivBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Maccabi Ashdod win35%

Draw27%

Shimshon Tel Aviv win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:45

RoundSouth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maccabi Ashdod

Shimshon Tel Aviv

10Days since last match9

Last match: 8 Oct · Liga Alef

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Alef

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Shimshon Tel Aviv	6	+7	13
20	Maccabi Ashdod	6	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shimshon tel aviv winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make Shimshon Tel Aviv a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maccabi Ashdod v Shimshon Tel Aviv~~1.39 – 1.48

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 3 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 13~~20 v 5

~~The market · Shimshon Tel Aviv win~~37% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shimshon Tel Aviv win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maccabi Ashdod win	35%	32%	+3
Draw	27%	31%	−4
Shimshon Tel Aviv win	39%	37%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	54%	41%	+13
Both teams to score	57%	48%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	78%	66%	+12
Over 3.5 goals	32%	22%	+10
Maccabi Ashdod or draw	61%	63%	−2
Maccabi Ashdod clean sheet	24%	–	–
Shimshon Tel Aviv clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.5 7.6 6.2 3.1 1 7.1 12.3 8.0 4.0 2 5.6 7.6 5.4 2.7 3 2.6 3.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maccabi Ashdod down, Shimshon Tel Aviv across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,454 Liga Alef matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.44 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maccabi Ashdod at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Shimshon Tel Aviv away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Maccabi Ashdod, 1.48 for Shimshon Tel Aviv. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SHI 1–1 MAC · MAC 1–1 SHI · SHI 0–1 MAC · MAC 0–0 SHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 3 Sept

MACCABI ASHDOD

LDDDWD1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

SHIMSHON TEL AVIV

WDWWLW2–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
2	Dimona	6	+4	15
3	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	6	+9	14
4	Tira	6	+7	14
5	Shimshon Tel Aviv	6	+7	13
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
15	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
18	Hapoel Beit Shean	4	+4	7
19	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	5	+1	7
20	Maccabi Ashdod	6	+1	7
21	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
22	Ironi Beit Shemesh	6	−6	7
23	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	6	−3	6
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
25	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
26	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5
27	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
28	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	6	−4	5
29	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
30	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	6	−4	4
31	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0