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Kfar Saba 1928 v Maccabi Ashdod

Kfar Saba 1928

1–3Full time

Maccabi Ashdod

Liga Alef · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:15

Kfar Saba 1928 1–3 Maccabi Ashdod MACCABI ASHDOD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maccabi Ashdod win~~39%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.560

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.594

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maccabi Ashdod win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Maccabi Ashdod 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 34–28–39
1′KICK-OFF Kfar Saba 1928 v Maccabi Ashdod
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Maccabi Ashdod win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Kfar Saba 1928 0–0 Maccabi Ashdod
46′SECOND HALF Kfar Saba 1928 0–0 Maccabi Ashdod
49′Maccabi Ashdod find the net on 49′. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–20–73
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Kfar Saba 1928 0–1 Maccabi Ashdod
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Maccabi Ashdod win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Maccabi Ashdod win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 42%)
50′We said Maccabi Ashdod at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 7–20–73
56′We said Maccabi Ashdod at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
57′A goal for Maccabi Ashdod on 57′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Kfar Saba 1928 0–2 Maccabi Ashdod
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Maccabi Ashdod win: 39% at kick-off, 94% now
58′We said Maccabi Ashdod at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
58′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–95
59′Maccabi Ashdod score on 59′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Kfar Saba 1928 0–3 Maccabi Ashdod
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Maccabi Ashdod win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
60′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–1–99
66′Kfar Saba 1928 find the net on 65′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–96
66′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–3–96
66′PENALTY MISSED · 65' Kfar Saba 1928
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Kfar Saba 1928 1–3 Maccabi Ashdod
83′We said Maccabi Ashdod at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Kfar Saba 1928 1–3 Maccabi Ashdod
FTKfar Saba 1928 1–3 Maccabi Ashdod · Maccabi Ashdod win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maccabi Ashdod are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kfar Saba 1928 34%, draw 27%, Maccabi Ashdod 39%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Kfar Saba 1928 v Maccabi AshdodBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Kfar Saba 1928 win34%

Draw27%

Maccabi Ashdod win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:45

RoundSouth · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kfar Saba 1928

Maccabi Ashdod

5Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Alef

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Alef

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
26	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
32	Kfar Saba 1928	7	−4	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi ashdod winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 20 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make Maccabi Ashdod a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kfar Saba 1928 v Maccabi Ashdod~~1.30 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 9 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~32 v 26

~~The market · Maccabi Ashdod win~~37% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maccabi Ashdod win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kfar Saba 1928 win	34%	34%	0
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Maccabi Ashdod win	39%	37%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	46%	+5
Both teams to score	55%	52%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	70%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	29%	26%	+3
Kfar Saba 1928 or draw	61%	63%	−2
Kfar Saba 1928 clean sheet	25%	–	–
Maccabi Ashdod clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.2 8.5 6.6 3.2 1 7.7 12.7 8.2 3.9 2 5.6 7.5 5.2 2.5 3 2.5 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kfar Saba 1928 down, Maccabi Ashdod across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,484 Liga Alef matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.2% of games this season, across 136 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kfar Saba 1928 at home: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Maccabi Ashdod away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Kfar Saba 1928, 1.43 for Maccabi Ashdod. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MAC 1–1 KFA · KFA 3–0 MAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 9 Sept

KFAR SABA 1928

WLLDLL4–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–1

MACCABI ASHDOD

DDDWDL1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	8	+10	20
2	Ironi Nesher	8	+18	19
3	Shimshon Tel Aviv	8	+11	19
4	Dimona	7	+6	18
5	Holon Yermiyahu	8	+8	16
6	Beitar Nahariya	8	+6	16
7	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	8	+8	15
8	Hapoel Hadera	8	+6	15
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	8	+2	15
10	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	8	+6	14
11	Hapoel Herzliya	8	0	13
12	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	7	+3	12
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	7	+2	12
14	Hapoel Beit Shean	6	+6	11
15	Hapoel Sderot	8	+4	11
16	Hapoel Azor	7	+2	11
17	Ironi Beit Shemesh	8	−1	11
18	FC Jerusalem	8	−3	11
19	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	7	+2	10
20	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	8	0	10
21	Maccabi Yavne	7	+4	9
22	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	8	0	9
23	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	8	−2	9
24	Hapoel Marmorek	7	+1	8
25	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	8	−1	8
26	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
27	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	8	−4	7
28	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	8	−6	6
29	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	8	−7	6
30	Tzeirey Tamra	7	−10	6
31	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	8	−15	5
32	Kfar Saba 1928	7	−4	4
33	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	8	−11	4
34	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
35	Tzeirey Tira	8	−15	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	8	−22	0