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Ironi Nesher v Maccabi K. Ata Bialik

Ironi Nesher

4–0Full time

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik

Liga Alef · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 14:01

Ironi Nesher 4–0 Maccabi K. Ata Bialik MACCABI K. ATA BIALIK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.598

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–23–38
1′KICK-OFF Ironi Nesher v Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
30′Ironi Nesher score on 30′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 65–21–14
30′We said Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 65–21–14
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Ironi Nesher 1–0 Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 65–21–14
37′31′: S. Masarwa on the scoresheet for Ironi Nesher, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 66–22–12
45′HALF-TIME Ironi Nesher 1–0 Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
46′SECOND HALF Ironi Nesher 1–0 Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
49′We said Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
60′Ironi Nesher find the net on 59′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
60′We said Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Ironi Nesher 2–0 Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
67′Ironi Nesher ahead on 62′ through L. Dahan. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
85′A goal for Ironi Nesher on 85′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Ironi Nesher 3–0 Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
89′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Ironi Nesher 4–0 Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
90′Ironi Nesher score on 89′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Ironi Nesher 4–0 Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
FTIroni Nesher 4–0 Maccabi K. Ata Bialik · Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Maccabi K. Ata Bialik just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ironi Nesher 37%, draw 25%, Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 38%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Ironi Nesher v Maccabi K. Ata BialikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Ironi Nesher win37%

Draw25%

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win38%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 11:00

RoundNorth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ironi Nesher

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik

4Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · State Cup

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Alef

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ironi Nesher	6	+13	13
11	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	6	+6	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi k. ata bialik winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Maccabi K. Ata Bialik a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ironi Nesher v Maccabi K. Ata Bialik~~1.62 – 1.61

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 4 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 10~~4 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ironi Nesher win	37%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Ironi Nesher or draw	62%	–	–
Ironi Nesher clean sheet	21%	–	–
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.7 6.0 5.4 2.9 1 5.8 11.0 7.9 4.2 2 5.1 7.7 6.0 3.3 3 2.8 4.1 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ironi Nesher down, Maccabi K. Ata Bialik across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,452 Liga Alef matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ironi Nesher at home: 3.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Maccabi K. Ata Bialik away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Ironi Nesher, 1.61 for Maccabi K. Ata Bialik. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~5 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MAC 2–1 IRO · IRO 1–1 MAC · IRO 1–3 MAC · MAC 1–1 IRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 4 Sept

IRONI NESHER

WWWDWL6–1 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 1–2

MACCABI K. ATA BIALIK

DWWWLL2–2 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 5–3 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dimona	6	+4	15
2	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	6	+9	14
3	Tira	6	+7	14
4	Ironi Nesher	6	+13	13
5	Shimshon Tel Aviv	6	+7	13
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	6	+6	10
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	5	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
15	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
18	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	5	+1	7
19	Maccabi Ashdod	6	+1	7
20	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
21	Ironi Beit Shemesh	6	−6	7
22	Hapoel Beit Shean	3	+4	6
23	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	6	−3	6
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
25	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
26	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5
27	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
28	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	6	−4	5
29	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
30	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	6	−4	4
31	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0