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Ironi Beit Shemesh v Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

Ironi Beit Shemesh

5–0Full time

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

Liga Alef · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 13:31

Ironi Beit Shemesh 5–0 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda HAPOEL MAHANE YEHUDA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Mahane Yehuda win~~38%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.598

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.458

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Mahane Yehuda win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
1′KICK-OFF Ironi Beit Shemesh v Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
24′A goal for Ironi Beit Shemesh on 24′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 64–20–15
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Ironi Beit Shemesh 1–0 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Hapoel Mahane Yehuda win: 38% at kick-off, 15% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Ironi Beit Shemesh win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Hapoel Mahane Yehuda win 36%)
25′We said Hapoel Mahane Yehuda at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 64–20–15
29′We said Hapoel Mahane Yehuda at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 65–21–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 65–21–14
35′Ironi Beit Shemesh score on 35′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Ironi Beit Shemesh 2–0 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Hapoel Mahane Yehuda win: 38% at kick-off, 4% now
36′We said Hapoel Mahane Yehuda at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 87–9–4
45′HALF-TIME Ironi Beit Shemesh 2–0 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
46′SECOND HALF Ironi Beit Shemesh 2–0 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
53′Ironi Beit Shemesh find the net on 53′. 3–0. 3–0 · 98–1–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Ironi Beit Shemesh 3–0 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
58′A goal for Ironi Beit Shemesh on 58′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Ironi Beit Shemesh 4–0 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
59′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
60′Ironi Beit Shemesh score on 60′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
60′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Ironi Beit Shemesh 5–0 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
FTFULL TIME Ironi Beit Shemesh 5–0 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
FTIroni Beit Shemesh 5–0 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda · Hapoel Mahane Yehuda win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hapoel Mahane Yehuda just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ironi Beit Shemesh 37%, draw 25%, Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 38%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Ironi Beit Shemesh v Hapoel Mahane YehudaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ironi Beit Shemesh win37%

Draw25%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda win38%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 11:00

RoundSouth · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ironi Beit Shemesh

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

5Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Alef

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Alef

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
22	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
26	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	7	−2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel mahane yehuda winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 20 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

38% The market29%

Us38%

~~Market~~29%

We make Hapoel Mahane Yehuda a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ironi Beit Shemesh v Hapoel Mahane Yehuda~~1.59 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 9 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 6~~22 v 26

~~The market · Hapoel Mahane Yehuda win~~29% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Mahane Yehuda win The market, margin stripped

Published at 34%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ironi Beit Shemesh win	37%	45%	−8
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda win	38%	29%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	61%	55%	+6
Both teams to score	63%	58%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	77%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	39%	34%	+5
Ironi Beit Shemesh or draw	62%	71%	−9
Ironi Beit Shemesh clean sheet	21%	–	–
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.5 5.9 5.4 2.9 1 5.9 11.1 8.0 4.3 2 5.3 8.0 6.2 3.4 3 2.8 4.3 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ironi Beit Shemesh down, Hapoel Mahane Yehuda across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,471 Liga Alef matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.6% of games this season, across 123 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Ironi Beit Shemesh at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Hapoel Mahane Yehuda away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Ironi Beit Shemesh, 1.60 for Hapoel Mahane Yehuda. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 9 Sept

IRONI BEIT SHEMESH

LDWLWD1–4 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–5 · 3–1 · 3–3

HAPOEL MAHANE YEHUDA

DLLLDW1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	8	+10	20
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Beitar Nahariya	7	+8	16
4	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
5	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
6	Dimona	6	+4	15
7	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	7	+4	15
8	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	7	+6	13
9	Holon Yermiyahu	7	+5	13
10	Hapoel Herzliya	8	0	13
11	Hapoel Hadera	7	+5	12
12	FC Jerusalem	7	+2	11
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
14	Hapoel Azor	7	+2	11
15	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
16	Maccabi Yavne	7	+4	9
17	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	6	+2	9
18	Hapoel Beit Shean	5	+4	8
19	Hapoel Marmorek	7	+1	8
20	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	7	0	8
21	Hapoel Sderot	7	−1	8
22	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
23	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
24	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
25	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	−3	7
26	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	7	−2	6
27	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	7	−4	6
28	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
29	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	7	−4	6
30	Tzeirey Tamra	7	−10	6
31	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	7	−11	5
32	Kfar Saba 1928	7	−4	4
33	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	8	−11	4
34	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
35	Tzeirey Tira	7	−12	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	7	−19	0