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Holon Yermiyahu v Tzeirey Tira

Holon Yermiyahu

3–0Full time

Tzeirey Tira

Liga Alef · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:01

Holon Yermiyahu 3–0 Tzeirey Tira HOLON YERMIYAHU WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Holon Yermiyahu win~~51%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.366

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.171

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Holon Yermiyahu win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Holon Yermiyahu 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–22
1′KICK-OFF Holon Yermiyahu v Tzeirey Tira
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Holon Yermiyahu win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′We said Holon Yermiyahu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–20
45′HALF-TIME Holon Yermiyahu 0–0 Tzeirey Tira
46′SECOND HALF Holon Yermiyahu 0–0 Tzeirey Tira
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Holon Yermiyahu win 40%)
54′Holon Yermiyahu score on 54′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–3
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Holon Yermiyahu 1–0 Tzeirey Tira
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Holon Yermiyahu win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Holon Yermiyahu win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 46%)
55′We said Holon Yermiyahu at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–15–3
66′We said Holon Yermiyahu at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
68′We said Holon Yermiyahu at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
68′Holon Yermiyahu find the net on 68′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Holon Yermiyahu 2–0 Tzeirey Tira
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Holon Yermiyahu win: 51% at kick-off, 98% now
69′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 98–1–0
71′A goal for Holon Yermiyahu on 71′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
71′We said Holon Yermiyahu at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Holon Yermiyahu 3–0 Tzeirey Tira
72′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Holon Yermiyahu 3–0 Tzeirey Tira
FTHolon Yermiyahu 3–0 Tzeirey Tira · Holon Yermiyahu win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Holon Yermiyahu are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Holon Yermiyahu 51%, draw 27%, Tzeirey Tira 22%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Holon Yermiyahu v Tzeirey TiraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Holon Yermiyahu win51%

Draw27%

Tzeirey Tira win22%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouth · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Holon Yermiyahu

Tzeirey Tira

4Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Alef

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Holon Yermiyahu	7	+5	13
35	Tzeirey Tira	7	−12	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · holon yermiyahu winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

51% The market67%

Us51%

~~Market~~67%

We make Holon Yermiyahu a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Holon Yermiyahu v Tzeirey Tira~~1.59 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 9 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 13 v 0~~9 v 35

~~The market · Holon Yermiyahu win~~67% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Holon Yermiyahu win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Holon Yermiyahu win	51%	67%	−16
Draw	27%	21%	+6
Tzeirey Tira win	22%	13%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	46%	54%	−8
Both teams to score	48%	48%	0
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
Holon Yermiyahu or draw	78%	87%	−9
Holon Yermiyahu clean sheet	40%	–	–
Tzeirey Tira clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 9.6 6.8 3.7 1 11.6 12.5 5.5 2 9.7 8.8 4.2 3 5.2 4.7 2.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Holon Yermiyahu down, Tzeirey Tira across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,471 Liga Alef matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.6% of games this season, across 123 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Holon Yermiyahu at home: 1.33 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 6). Tzeirey Tira away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Holon Yermiyahu, 0.95 for Tzeirey Tira. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~HOL 1–3 TZE · TZE 0–0 HOL · HOL 2–0 TZE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 9 Sept

HOLON YERMIYAHU

WLWLWW1–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 3–1

TZEIREY TIRA

LLLLLL0–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	8	+10	20
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Beitar Nahariya	7	+8	16
4	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
5	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
6	Dimona	6	+4	15
7	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	7	+4	15
8	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	7	+6	13
9	Holon Yermiyahu	7	+5	13
10	Hapoel Herzliya	8	0	13
11	Hapoel Hadera	7	+5	12
12	FC Jerusalem	7	+2	11
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
14	Hapoel Azor	7	+2	11
15	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
16	Maccabi Yavne	7	+4	9
17	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	6	+2	9
18	Hapoel Beit Shean	5	+4	8
19	Hapoel Marmorek	7	+1	8
20	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	7	0	8
21	Hapoel Sderot	7	−1	8
22	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
23	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
24	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
25	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	−3	7
26	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	7	−2	6
27	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	7	−4	6
28	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
29	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	7	−4	6
30	Tzeirey Tamra	7	−10	6
31	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	7	−11	5
32	Kfar Saba 1928	7	−4	4
33	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	8	−11	4
34	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
35	Tzeirey Tira	7	−12	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	7	−19	0