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Hapoel Umm al-Fahm v Tira

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

0–1Full time

Tira

Liga Alef · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0–1 Tira TIRA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tira win~~51%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.360

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.664

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tira win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tira was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 24–25–51
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Umm al-Fahm v Tira
23′A goal for Tira on 23′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–16–76
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0–1 Tira
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Tira win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
24′We published Tira at 51%. Our model now makes it 76%. 0–1 · 9–16–76
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 8–16–76
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0–1 Tira
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0–1 Tira
58′We published Tira at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Tira win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
72′We published Tira at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
80′We published Tira at 51%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Tira win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
87′We published Tira at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 0–1 Tira
FTHapoel Umm al-Fahm 0–1 Tira · Tira win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tira are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 24%, draw 25%, Tira 51%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Umm al-Fahm v TiraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win24%

Draw25%

Tira win51%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:55

RoundNorth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Tira

5Days since last match6

Last match: 13 Oct · State Cup

Last match: 12 Oct · State Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Tira	6	+7	14
19	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	5	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tira winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

51% The market34%

Us51%

~~Market~~34%

We make Tira a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm v Tira~~1.20 – 1.85

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D4 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 14~~19 v 4

~~The market · Tira win~~34% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tira win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win	24%	38%	−14
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Tira win	51%	34%	+17
Over 2.5 goals	58%	50%	+8
Both teams to score	58%	55%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	72%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	36%	30%	+6
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm or draw	49%	66%	−17
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm clean sheet	17%	–	–
Tira clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.4 8.1 8.0 4.9 2.4 1 5.0 11.2 9.1 5.6 2.7 2 3.6 6.1 5.4 3.3 3 2.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Umm al-Fahm down, Tira across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,454 Liga Alef matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tira away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm, 1.85 for Tira. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TIR 5–0 HAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 4 Sept

HAPOEL UMM AL-FAHM

DWDDD2–2 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 0–0 · 1–1

TIRA

WWDDWW1–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
2	Dimona	6	+4	15
3	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	6	+9	14
4	Tira	6	+7	14
5	Shimshon Tel Aviv	6	+7	13
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
15	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
18	Hapoel Beit Shean	4	+4	7
19	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	5	+1	7
20	Maccabi Ashdod	6	+1	7
21	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
22	Ironi Beit Shemesh	6	−6	7
23	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	6	−3	6
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
25	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
26	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5
27	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
28	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	6	−4	5
29	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
30	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	6	−4	4
31	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0