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Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel v Beitar Nahariya

Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel

0–4Full time

Beitar Nahariya

Liga Alef · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 21:50

Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 0–4 Beitar Nahariya BEITAR NAHARIYA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Beitar Nahariya win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.319

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Beitar Nahariya win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Beitar Nahariya 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 20–26–54
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel v Beitar Nahariya
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Beitar Nahariya win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
41′Beitar Nahariya find the net on 41′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–15–81
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 0–1 Beitar Nahariya
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Beitar Nahariya win: 54% at kick-off, 81% now
42′We said Beitar Nahariya at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–1 · 4–15–81
43′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 4–15–81
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 0–1 Beitar Nahariya
46′Beitar Nahariya ahead on 42′ through I. Biton. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–15–81
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 0–1 Beitar Nahariya
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Beitar Nahariya win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
64′We said Beitar Nahariya at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
72′A goal for Beitar Nahariya on 72′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 0–2 Beitar Nahariya
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Beitar Nahariya win: 54% at kick-off, 99% now
73′We said Beitar Nahariya at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
75′Beitar Nahariya score on 75′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
75′We said Beitar Nahariya at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 0–3 Beitar Nahariya
76′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
81′Beitar Nahariya find the net on 81′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 0–4 Beitar Nahariya
82′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 0–4 Beitar Nahariya
FTHapoel Tirat HaCarmel 0–4 Beitar Nahariya · Beitar Nahariya win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Beitar Nahariya are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 20%, draw 26%, Beitar Nahariya 54%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel v Beitar NahariyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel win20%

Draw26%

Beitar Nahariya win54%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:15

RoundNorth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel

Beitar Nahariya

7Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Alef

Last match: 12 Oct · State Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
32	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · beitar nahariya winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Beitar Nahariya a 54% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel v Beitar Nahariya~~0.94 – 1.72

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 13~~32 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel win	20%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Beitar Nahariya win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel or draw	46%	–	–
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel clean sheet	19%	–	–
Beitar Nahariya clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 8.6 11.2 10.1 5.8 2.7 1 5.8 11.9 9.1 5.2 2.3 2 3.3 5.2 4.3 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel down, Beitar Nahariya across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,457 Liga Alef matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel at home: 0.33 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Beitar Nahariya away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel, 1.72 for Beitar Nahariya. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 6 Sept

HAPOEL TIRAT HACARMEL

LWLDLL0–1 · 4–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–4

BEITAR NAHARIYA

WWWWLD1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	7	+8	17
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
4	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
5	Dimona	6	+4	15
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
15	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	6	+2	9
17	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	7	0	8
18	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
19	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
20	Hapoel Beit Shean	4	+4	7
21	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
22	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
23	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
24	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	−3	7
25	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	7	−4	6
26	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
27	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	7	−4	6
28	Tzeirey Tamra	7	−10	6
29	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
30	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	7	−11	5
31	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
32	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
33	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
34	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0