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Hapoel Sderot v Hapoel Herzliya

Hapoel Sderot

2–2Full time

Hapoel Herzliya

Liga Alef · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 21:30

Hapoel Sderot 2–2 Hapoel Herzliya HAPOEL SDEROT WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Sderot win~~37%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.743

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.811

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 3 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Sderot win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hapoel Sderot 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–30–33
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Sderot v Hapoel Herzliya
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Hapoel Sderot win 34%)
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Sderot 2–2 Hapoel Herzliya
FTHapoel Sderot 2–2 Hapoel Herzliya · Hapoel Sderot win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hapoel Sderot just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Sderot 37%, draw 30%, Hapoel Herzliya 33%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Sderot v Hapoel HerzliyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Sderot win37%

Draw30%

Hapoel Herzliya win33%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundSouth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Sderot

Hapoel Herzliya

7Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · State Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
23	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel sderot winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

37% The market39%

Us37%

~~Market~~39%

We make Hapoel Sderot a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Sderot v Hapoel Herzliya~~1.24 – 1.17

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 3 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 12~~23 v 8

~~The market · Hapoel Sderot win~~39% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Sderot win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Sderot win	37%	39%	−2
Draw	30%	26%	+4
Hapoel Herzliya win	33%	35%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	50%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	73%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	29%	−6
Hapoel Sderot or draw	67%	65%	+2
Hapoel Sderot clean sheet	32%	–	–
Hapoel Herzliya clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.7 9.4 6.1 2.5 1 10.1 13.5 7.3 2.9 2 6.9 7.7 4.5 3 2.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Sderot down, Hapoel Herzliya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,457 Liga Alef matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Hapoel Sderot at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Hapoel Herzliya away: 0.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Hapoel Sderot, 1.17 for Hapoel Herzliya. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 3 Sept

HAPOEL SDEROT

WLWLDL4–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–4

HAPOEL HERZLIYA

WWDWDD2–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	7	+8	17
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
4	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
5	Dimona	6	+4	15
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
15	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	7	0	8
18	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
19	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
20	Hapoel Beit Shean	4	+4	7
21	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
22	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
23	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
24	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	−3	7
25	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
26	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
27	Tzeirey Tamra	7	−10	6
28	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
29	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	6	−4	5
30	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
31	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0