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Hapoel Mahane Yehuda v FC Jerusalem

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

4–2Full time

FC Jerusalem

Liga Alef · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 4–2 FC Jerusalem FC JERUSALEM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Jerusalem win~~48%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.850

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.009

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Jerusalem win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Jerusalem was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 26–26–48
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Mahane Yehuda v FC Jerusalem
22′We said FC Jerusalem at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–0 · 55–24–21
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1–0 FC Jerusalem
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' FC Jerusalem win: 48% at kick-off, 21% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Hapoel Mahane Yehuda win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was FC Jerusalem win 45%)
23′A goal for Hapoel Mahane Yehuda on 22′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 55–24–21
25′We said FC Jerusalem at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 2–0 · 80–13–7
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 2–0 FC Jerusalem
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' FC Jerusalem win: 48% at kick-off, 7% now
26′Hapoel Mahane Yehuda score on 26′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 80–13–7
38′Hapoel Mahane Yehuda find the net on 38′. 2–0 · 84–11–5
38′We said FC Jerusalem at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 3–0 · 95–4–1
38′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 95–4–1
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 3–0 FC Jerusalem
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 3–0 FC Jerusalem
45′SECOND HALF Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 3–0 FC Jerusalem
55′A goal for FC Jerusalem on 55′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 90–8–2
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 3–1 FC Jerusalem
56′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 90–8–2
58′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 67–24–9
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 3–2 FC Jerusalem
59′FC Jerusalem score on 58′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 67–24–9
95′6 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 100–0–0
95′Hapoel Mahane Yehuda find the net on 90′. 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 4–2 FC Jerusalem
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 4–2 FC Jerusalem
FTHapoel Mahane Yehuda 4–2 FC Jerusalem · FC Jerusalem win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Jerusalem are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 26%, draw 26%, FC Jerusalem 48%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Mahane Yehuda v FC JerusalemBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda win26%

Draw26%

FC Jerusalem win48%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:30

RoundSouth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

FC Jerusalem

11Days since last match10

Last match: 8 Oct · Liga Alef

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Alef

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc jerusalem winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

48% The market57%

Us48%

~~Market~~57%

We make FC Jerusalem a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Mahane Yehuda v FC Jerusalem~~1.17 – 1.70

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 3 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 11~~32 v 10

~~The market · FC Jerusalem win~~57% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Jerusalem win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda win	26%	20%	+6
Draw	26%	23%	+3
FC Jerusalem win	48%	57%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	54%	60%	−6
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	80%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	39%	−7
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda or draw	52%	43%	+9
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda clean sheet	19%	–	–
FC Jerusalem clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.2 8.8 8.1 4.6 2.1 1 5.9 11.9 9.0 5.1 2.3 2 4.0 6.4 5.2 3.0 3 2.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Mahane Yehuda down, FC Jerusalem across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,457 Liga Alef matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). FC Jerusalem away: 2.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Hapoel Mahane Yehuda, 1.70 for FC Jerusalem. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 3 Sept

HAPOEL MAHANE YEHUDA

DDLLLD1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 0–0

FC JERUSALEM

WDWDWL2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	7	+8	17
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
4	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
5	Dimona	6	+4	15
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	6	+3	11
12	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
13	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
14	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
15	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
16	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
17	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	7	0	8
18	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
19	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
20	Hapoel Beit Shean	4	+4	7
21	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
22	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
23	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
24	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	−3	7
25	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
26	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
27	Tzeirey Tamra	7	−10	6
28	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
29	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	7	−5	5
30	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
31	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0