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Hapoel Ironi Arraba v Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

Hapoel Ironi Arraba

1–5Full time

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

Liga Alef · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 14:26

Hapoel Ironi Arraba 1–5 Maccabi Neve Sha'anan MACCABI NEVE SHA'ANAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win~~46%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.445

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.430

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 29–26–45
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Ironi Arraba v Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
7′Maccabi Neve Sha'anan find the net on 6′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–16–71
7′We said Maccabi Neve Sha'anan at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 12–16–71
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Hapoel Ironi Arraba 0–1 Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win: 46% at kick-off, 71% now
15′A goal for Maccabi Neve Sha'anan on 15′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 4–8–89
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Hapoel Ironi Arraba 0–2 Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win: 46% at kick-off, 89% now
16′We said Maccabi Neve Sha'anan at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 0–2 · 4–8–89
24′We said Maccabi Neve Sha'anan at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–2 · 3–7–90
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Ironi Arraba 0–2 Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Ironi Arraba 0–2 Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
49′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–94
55′We said Maccabi Neve Sha'anan at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
57′Hapoel Ironi Arraba are down to ten from 57′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–2 · 1–4–95
57′🟥 RED CARD · 57' Hapoel Ironi Arraba
59′Maccabi Neve Sha'anan score on 59′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Hapoel Ironi Arraba 0–3 Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
60′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–1–99
64′We said Maccabi Neve Sha'anan at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
69′Hapoel Ironi Arraba find the net on 69′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–97
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Hapoel Ironi Arraba 1–3 Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
70′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–2–98
78′A goal for Maccabi Neve Sha'anan on 78′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
78′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Hapoel Ironi Arraba 1–4 Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
89′Maccabi Neve Sha'anan score on 88′ to make it 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
89′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–5 · 0–0–100
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Hapoel Ironi Arraba 1–5 Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Ironi Arraba 1–5 Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
FTHapoel Ironi Arraba 1–5 Maccabi Neve Sha'anan · Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Ironi Arraba 29%, draw 26%, Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 46%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Ironi Arraba v Maccabi Neve Sha'ananBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Ironi Arraba win29%

Draw26%

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win46%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 11:30

RoundNorth · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Ironi Arraba

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

4Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Alef

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
28	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
31	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	7	−11	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maccabi neve sha'anan winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 23 Oct 04:19 · locked at kick-off

46% The market46%

Us46%

~~Market~~46%

We make Maccabi Neve Sha'anan a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Ironi Arraba v Maccabi Neve Sha'anan~~1.28 – 1.68

~~Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 10 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 6~~31 v 28

~~The market · Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win~~46% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Ironi Arraba win	29%	27%	+2
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win	46%	46%	0
Over 2.5 goals	56%	51%	+5
Both teams to score	58%	55%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	74%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	34%	30%	+4
Hapoel Ironi Arraba or draw	54%	54%	0
Hapoel Ironi Arraba clean sheet	20%	–	–
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.7 7.9 7.2 4.1 1 5.9 11.7 8.8 4.9 2.2 2 4.4 6.9 5.6 3.1 3 3.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Ironi Arraba down, Maccabi Neve Sha'anan across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,471 Liga Alef matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.6% of games this season, across 123 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Ironi Arraba at home: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Maccabi Neve Sha'anan away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Hapoel Ironi Arraba, 1.68 for Maccabi Neve Sha'anan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HAP 3–1 MAC · MAC 0–0 HAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 10 Sept

HAPOEL IRONI ARRABA

LLLDDW0–4 · 0–4 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

MACCABI NEVE SHA'ANAN

DDLLWL1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	8	+10	20
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Beitar Nahariya	7	+8	16
4	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
5	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
6	Dimona	6	+4	15
7	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	7	+4	15
8	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	7	+6	13
9	Holon Yermiyahu	7	+5	13
10	Hapoel Herzliya	8	0	13
11	Hapoel Hadera	7	+5	12
12	FC Jerusalem	7	+2	11
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
14	Hapoel Azor	7	+2	11
15	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
16	Maccabi Yavne	7	+4	9
17	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	6	+2	9
18	Hapoel Beit Shean	5	+4	8
19	Hapoel Marmorek	7	+1	8
20	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	7	0	8
21	Hapoel Sderot	7	−1	8
22	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
23	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
24	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
25	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	−3	7
26	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	7	−2	6
27	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	7	−4	6
28	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
29	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	7	−4	6
30	Tzeirey Tamra	7	−10	6
31	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	7	−11	5
32	Kfar Saba 1928	7	−4	4
33	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	8	−11	4
34	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
35	Tzeirey Tira	7	−12	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	7	−19	0