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Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt v Hapoel Migdal HaEmek

Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt

1–1Full time

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek

Liga Alef · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 03:22

Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 1–1 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek HAPOEL MIGDAL HAEMEK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win~~43%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.828

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.930

Corrected on 20 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 0–1; the score is now 1–1 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 31–26–43
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt v Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
20′PENALTY MISSED · 20' Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 0–0 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 0–0 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win 37%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+6' Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 25–44–32
56′We said Hapoel Migdal HaEmek at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 24–44–31
62′We said Hapoel Migdal HaEmek at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 22–49–29
69′We said Hapoel Migdal HaEmek at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 19–57–24
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
75′We said Hapoel Migdal HaEmek at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 15–65–19
76′🟥 RED CARD · 76' Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
77′Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt are down to ten from 76′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 14–69–17
77′🟥 RED CARD · 76' Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt
78′Hapoel Migdal HaEmek find the net on 78′. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–87
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 0–1 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win: 43% at kick-off, 87% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 70%)
79′We said Hapoel Migdal HaEmek at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 0–1 · 1–11–88
82′We said Hapoel Migdal HaEmek at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
88′We said Hapoel Migdal HaEmek at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 0–1 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek
FTHapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 1–1 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek · Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 31%, draw 26%, Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 43%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt v Hapoel Migdal HaEmekBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt win31%

Draw26%

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win43%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 14:15

RoundNorth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt

Hapoel Migdal HaEmek

10Days since last match11

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Alef

Last match: 8 Oct · Liga Alef

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
28	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	6	−4	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel migdal haemek winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

43% The market52%

Us43%

~~Market~~52%

We make Hapoel Migdal HaEmek a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt v Hapoel Migdal HaEmek~~1.32 – 1.61

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 8~~28 v 16

~~The market · Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win~~52% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt win	31%	25%	+6
Draw	26%	23%	+3
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek win	43%	52%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	56%	61%	−5
Both teams to score	58%	61%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	40%	−6
Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt or draw	57%	48%	+9
Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt clean sheet	21%	–	–
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.8 7.8 6.9 3.8 1 6.2 11.9 8.7 4.7 2 4.7 7.2 5.6 3.1 3 2.1 3.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt down, Hapoel Migdal HaEmek across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,457 Liga Alef matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Hapoel Migdal HaEmek away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt, 1.61 for Hapoel Migdal HaEmek. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 4 Sept

HAPOEL IHUD BNEI JATT

LLDLWD1–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–5 · 2–0 · 0–0

HAPOEL MIGDAL HAEMEK

DWLDW2–2 · 4–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	7	+8	17
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
4	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
5	Dimona	6	+4	15
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
15	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
18	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
19	Hapoel Beit Shean	4	+4	7
20	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
21	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
22	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
23	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	6	−3	6
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
25	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
26	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5
27	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
28	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	6	−4	5
29	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
30	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	6	−4	4
31	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0