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Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt v Hapoel Bnei Musmus

Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt

4–2Full time

Hapoel Bnei Musmus

Liga Alef · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:31

Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 4–2 Hapoel Bnei Musmus HAPOEL IHUD BNEI JATT WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt win~~37%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.598

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.756

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–34
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt v Hapoel Bnei Musmus
5′A goal for Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–19–15
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 1–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt win: 37% at kick-off, 66% now
6′We published Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt at 37%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–19–15
8′Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt score on 8′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 86–10–5
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 2–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt win: 37% at kick-off, 86% now
9′We published Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt at 37%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–0 · 86–10–5
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
25′Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt find the net on 24′. 3–0. 3–0 · 97–2–1
25′We published Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt at 37%. Our model now makes it 97%. 3–0 · 97–2–1
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 3–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 97–2–1
38′A goal for Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt on 38′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 4–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
39′We published Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt at 37%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
40′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 4–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 4–0 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
53′Hapoel Bnei Musmus score on 53′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 4–1 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
54′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 99–1–0
77′Hapoel Bnei Musmus find the net on 77′. 4–2. 4–2 · 99–1–0
77′6 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 99–1–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 4–2 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 4–2 Hapoel Bnei Musmus
FTHapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 4–2 Hapoel Bnei Musmus · Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt 37%, draw 29%, Hapoel Bnei Musmus 34%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt v Hapoel Bnei MusmusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt win37%

Draw29%

Hapoel Bnei Musmus win34%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 12:45

RoundNorth · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt

Hapoel Bnei Musmus

4Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Alef

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
27	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	7	−4	6
29	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	7	−4	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel ihud bnei jatt winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

37% The market30%

Us37%

~~Market~~30%

We make Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt v Hapoel Bnei Musmus~~1.29 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 10 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 6~~27 v 29

~~The market · Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt win~~30% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt win	37%	30%	+7
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Hapoel Bnei Musmus win	34%	43%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	46%	52%	−6
Both teams to score	51%	56%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	31%	−6
Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt or draw	66%	57%	+9
Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt clean sheet	30%	–	–
Hapoel Bnei Musmus clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.7 8.9 6.1 2.6 1 9.3 13.3 7.5 3.2 2 6.7 7.8 4.8 2.1 3 2.9 3.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt down, Hapoel Bnei Musmus across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,471 Liga Alef matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.6% of games this season, across 123 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt at home: 1.25 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). Hapoel Bnei Musmus away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt, 1.24 for Hapoel Bnei Musmus. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 10 Sept

HAPOEL IHUD BNEI JATT

LDLWDD0–2 · 1–1 · 3–5 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

HAPOEL BNEI MUSMUS

LLDWDL0–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	8	+10	20
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Beitar Nahariya	7	+8	16
4	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
5	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
6	Dimona	6	+4	15
7	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	7	+4	15
8	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	7	+6	13
9	Holon Yermiyahu	7	+5	13
10	Hapoel Herzliya	8	0	13
11	Hapoel Hadera	7	+5	12
12	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	7	+3	12
13	FC Jerusalem	7	+2	11
14	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
15	Hapoel Azor	7	+2	11
16	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	7	+2	10
17	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	8	0	10
18	Maccabi Yavne	7	+4	9
19	Hapoel Beit Shean	5	+4	8
20	Hapoel Marmorek	7	+1	8
21	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	8	−1	8
22	Hapoel Sderot	7	−1	8
23	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
24	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
25	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	−3	7
26	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	7	−2	6
27	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	7	−4	6
28	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
29	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	7	−4	6
30	Tzeirey Tamra	7	−10	6
31	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	7	−11	5
32	Kfar Saba 1928	7	−4	4
33	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	8	−11	4
34	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
35	Tzeirey Tira	7	−12	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	7	−19	0