Hapoel Herzliya v Hapoel Azor

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Herzliya win at 42%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Hapoel Herzliya was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–32–26
3. 1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Herzliya v Hapoel Azor
4. 15′We said Hapoel Herzliya at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–24–60
5. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Hapoel Herzliya 0–1 Hapoel Azor
6. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Hapoel Herzliya win: 42% at kick-off, 16% now
7. 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Hapoel Azor win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Hapoel Herzliya win 40%)
8. 16′Hapoel Azor score on 15′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–24–61
9. 22′Hapoel Azor find the net on 22′. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–86
10. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Hapoel Herzliya 0–2 Hapoel Azor
11. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Hapoel Herzliya win: 42% at kick-off, 4% now
12. 23′We said Hapoel Herzliya at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–86
13. 29′We said Hapoel Herzliya at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–2 · 13–24–63
14. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Hapoel Herzliya 1–2 Hapoel Azor
15. 30′A goal for Hapoel Herzliya on 29′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 12–24–64
16. 30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 12–24–64
17. 42′We said Hapoel Herzliya at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
18. 45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Herzliya 1–2 Hapoel Azor
19. 45′SECOND HALF Hapoel Herzliya 1–2 Hapoel Azor
20. 47′S. Badir scores for Hapoel Herzliya on 30′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 9–23–68
21. 51′A goal for Hapoel Azor on 51′. 1–2 · 7–23–70
22. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Hapoel Herzliya win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
23. 85′A red card for Hapoel Herzliya on 84′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 0–6–93
24. 85′4 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
25. 85′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Hapoel Herzliya
26. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Hapoel Herzliya 1–3 Hapoel Azor
27. 86′Hapoel Azor score on 85′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
28. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 84' L. Cohen · Hapoel Herzliya
29. 93′Hapoel Azor find the net on 90′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
30. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Hapoel Herzliya 1–4 Hapoel Azor
31. 94′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
32. 95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' Hapoel Herzliya
33. 96′Hapoel Herzliya are down to nine from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–4 · 0–0–100
34. 96′A goal for Hapoel Azor on 90′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
35. 96′6 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
36. 96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Hapoel Herzliya 1–5 Hapoel Azor
37. FTFULL TIME Hapoel Herzliya 1–5 Hapoel Azor
38. FTHapoel Herzliya 1–5 Hapoel Azor · Hapoel Herzliya win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.