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Hapoel Hadera v Maccabi Kiryat Malachi

Hapoel Hadera

1–0Full time

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi

Liga Alef · FRI 23 OCT · Netanya Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 13:31

Hapoel Hadera 1–0 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi HAPOEL HADERA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Hadera win~~37%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.601

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.573

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Hadera win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hapoel Hadera 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–30–33
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Hadera v Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Hapoel Hadera win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Hadera 0–0 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Hadera 0–0 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Hapoel Hadera win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
58′We said Hapoel Hadera at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 0–0 · 25–52–23
60′We said Hapoel Hadera at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
69′We said Hapoel Hadera at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–18
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Hapoel Hadera win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
77′We said Hapoel Hadera at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
82′We said Hapoel Hadera at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Hapoel Hadera win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
89′We said Hapoel Hadera at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–91–4
93′A goal for Hapoel Hadera on 90′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Hapoel Hadera 1–0 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Hapoel Hadera win: 37% at kick-off, 98% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Hapoel Hadera win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 96%)
94′We said Hapoel Hadera at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 1–0 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Hadera 1–0 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
FTHapoel Hadera 1–0 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi · Hapoel Hadera win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hapoel Hadera just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Hadera 37%, draw 30%, Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 33%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Hadera v Maccabi Kiryat MalachiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Hadera win37%

Draw30%

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win33%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 10:30

RoundSouth · matchday 8

VenueNetanya Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Hadera

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi

4Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Alef

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Alef

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
11	Hapoel Hadera	7	+5	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel hadera winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

37% The market38%

Us37%

~~Market~~38%

We make Hapoel Hadera a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Hadera v Maccabi Kiryat Malachi~~1.21 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 9 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 12 v 15~~11 v 5

~~The market · Hapoel Hadera win~~38% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Hadera win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Hadera win	37%	38%	−1
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win	33%	33%	0
Over 2.5 goals	42%	45%	−3
Both teams to score	47%	51%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	69%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−5
Hapoel Hadera or draw	67%	67%	0
Hapoel Hadera clean sheet	33%	–	–
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.2 9.8 6.2 2.5 1 10.5 13.7 7.1 2.8 2 7.0 7.6 4.3 3 2.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Hadera down, Maccabi Kiryat Malachi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,471 Liga Alef matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.6% of games this season, across 123 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Hapoel Hadera at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Maccabi Kiryat Malachi away: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Hapoel Hadera, 1.14 for Maccabi Kiryat Malachi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 9 Sept

HAPOEL HADERA

DWDWDW2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

MACCABI KIRYAT MALACHI

WWWDWD2–1 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	8	+10	20
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Beitar Nahariya	7	+8	16
4	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
5	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
6	Dimona	6	+4	15
7	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	7	+4	15
8	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	7	+6	13
9	Holon Yermiyahu	7	+5	13
10	Hapoel Herzliya	8	0	13
11	Hapoel Hadera	7	+5	12
12	FC Jerusalem	7	+2	11
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
14	Hapoel Azor	7	+2	11
15	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
16	Maccabi Yavne	7	+4	9
17	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	6	+2	9
18	Hapoel Beit Shean	5	+4	8
19	Hapoel Marmorek	7	+1	8
20	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	7	0	8
21	Hapoel Sderot	7	−1	8
22	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
23	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
24	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
25	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	−3	7
26	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	7	−2	6
27	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	7	−4	6
28	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
29	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	7	−4	6
30	Tzeirey Tamra	7	−10	6
31	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	7	−11	5
32	Kfar Saba 1928	7	−4	4
33	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	8	−11	4
34	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
35	Tzeirey Tira	7	−12	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	7	−19	0