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Hapoel Bnei Musmus v Hapoel Ironi Arraba

Hapoel Bnei Musmus

1–2Full time

Hapoel Ironi Arraba

Liga Alef · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 18:01

Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1–2 Hapoel Ironi Arraba HAPOEL BNEI MUSMUS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hapoel Bnei Musmus win~~54%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.986

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.228

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Bnei Musmus win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hapoel Bnei Musmus was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–26–21
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Bnei Musmus v Hapoel Ironi Arraba
24′Hapoel Ironi Arraba score on 24′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 23–26–51
24′We said Hapoel Bnei Musmus at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–26–51
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Hapoel Bnei Musmus 0–1 Hapoel Ironi Arraba
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Hapoel Bnei Musmus win: 54% at kick-off, 23% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Hapoel Ironi Arraba win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Hapoel Bnei Musmus win 49%)
28′A red card for Hapoel Bnei Musmus on 28′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 21–26–53
28′🟥 RED CARD · 28' Hapoel Bnei Musmus
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 21–26–53
34′We said Hapoel Bnei Musmus at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–54
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Bnei Musmus 0–1 Hapoel Ironi Arraba
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Bnei Musmus 0–1 Hapoel Ironi Arraba
47′We said Hapoel Bnei Musmus at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–59
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Hapoel Bnei Musmus win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
59′We said Hapoel Bnei Musmus at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
66′Hapoel Ironi Arraba find the net on 66′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Hapoel Bnei Musmus 0–2 Hapoel Ironi Arraba
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Hapoel Bnei Musmus win: 54% at kick-off, 1% now
67′We said Hapoel Bnei Musmus at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
89′A goal for Hapoel Bnei Musmus on 89′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
89′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–6–94
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1–2 Hapoel Ironi Arraba
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1–2 Hapoel Ironi Arraba
FTHapoel Bnei Musmus 1–2 Hapoel Ironi Arraba · Hapoel Bnei Musmus win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hapoel Bnei Musmus are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Bnei Musmus 54%, draw 26%, Hapoel Ironi Arraba 20%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Bnei Musmus v Hapoel Ironi ArrabaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Bnei Musmus win54%

Draw26%

Hapoel Ironi Arraba win20%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 15:30

RoundNorth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Bnei Musmus

Hapoel Ironi Arraba

7Days since last match10

Last match: 12 Oct · State Cup

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Alef

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel bnei musmus winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 19 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

54% The market65%

Us54%

~~Market~~65%

We make Hapoel Bnei Musmus a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Bnei Musmus v Hapoel Ironi Arraba~~1.70 – 0.94

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 2~~24 v 34

~~The market · Hapoel Bnei Musmus win~~65% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Bnei Musmus win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Bnei Musmus win	54%	65%	−11
Draw	26%	21%	+5
Hapoel Ironi Arraba win	20%	13%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	49%	56%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	35%	−8
Hapoel Bnei Musmus or draw	80%	87%	−7
Hapoel Bnei Musmus clean sheet	40%	–	–
Hapoel Ironi Arraba clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.9 6.0 3.3 1 11.3 12.0 5.2 2 10.1 9.0 4.3 3 5.8 5.1 2.4 4 2.6 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Bnei Musmus down, Hapoel Ironi Arraba across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,457 Liga Alef matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Bnei Musmus at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Ironi Arraba away: 0.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Hapoel Bnei Musmus, 0.94 for Hapoel Ironi Arraba. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~IRO 2–1 BNE · IRO 0–1 BNE · BNE 0–1 IRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 6 Sept

HAPOEL BNEI MUSMUS

DLLDWD0–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

HAPOEL IRONI ARRABA

LLLLDD0–1 · 0–4 · 0–4 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	7	+8	17
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
4	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
5	Dimona	6	+4	15
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
15	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
18	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
19	Hapoel Beit Shean	4	+4	7
20	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
21	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
22	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
23	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	6	−3	6
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
25	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
26	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5
27	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
28	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	6	−4	5
29	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
30	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	6	−4	4
31	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0