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Hapoel Beit Shean v Hapoel Nazareth Illit

Hapoel Beit Shean

1–1Full time

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

Liga Alef · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:02

Hapoel Beit Shean 1–1 Hapoel Nazareth Illit HAPOEL BEIT SHEAN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Hapoel Beit Shean win~~44%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.816

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.810

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hapoel Beit Shean win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Hapoel Beit Shean v Hapoel Nazareth Illit
2′Much as we predicted: Hapoel Beit Shean was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
34′Hapoel Nazareth Illit find the net on 34′. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–24–61
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Hapoel Beit Shean 0–1 Hapoel Nazareth Illit
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Hapoel Beit Shean win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Hapoel Nazareth Illit win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Hapoel Beit Shean win 15%)
35′We said Hapoel Beit Shean at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Hapoel Beit Shean win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–62
42′A goal for Hapoel Beit Shean on 42′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 37–36–27
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Hapoel Beit Shean 1–1 Hapoel Nazareth Illit
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Hapoel Beit Shean win: 44% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Hapoel Beit Shean 1–1 Hapoel Nazareth Illit
46′A. Gabis scores for Hapoel Beit Shean on 43′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 36–38–26
46′SECOND HALF Hapoel Beit Shean 1–1 Hapoel Nazareth Illit
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Hapoel Nazareth Illit win 26%)
54′We said Hapoel Beit Shean at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–43–24
61′We said Hapoel Beit Shean at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
69′We said Hapoel Beit Shean at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–18
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Hapoel Beit Shean win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
75′We said Hapoel Beit Shean at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–15
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Hapoel Beit Shean win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
84′We said Hapoel Beit Shean at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
91′We said Hapoel Beit Shean at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Hapoel Beit Shean win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME Hapoel Beit Shean 1–1 Hapoel Nazareth Illit
FTHapoel Beit Shean 1–1 Hapoel Nazareth Illit · Hapoel Beit Shean win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hapoel Beit Shean are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Beit Shean 44%, draw 27%, Hapoel Nazareth Illit 30%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Beit Shean v Hapoel Nazareth IllitBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 10:00 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Beit Shean win44%

Draw27%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit win30%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 12:00

RoundNorth · matchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Beit Shean

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

4Days since last match4

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Alef

Last match: 12 Oct · State Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	5	+2	10
22	Hapoel Beit Shean	3	+4	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel beit shean winFirst published 15 Oct 10:00 · locked at kick-off

44% The market27%

Us44%

~~Market~~27%

We make Hapoel Beit Shean a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Beit Shean v Hapoel Nazareth Illit~~1.57 – 1.25

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L1 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 10~~22 v 13

~~The market · Hapoel Beit Shean win~~27% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Beit Shean win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 27% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Beit Shean win	44%	27%	+17
Draw	27%	27%	0
Hapoel Nazareth Illit win	30%	46%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	53%	48%	+5
Both teams to score	56%	53%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	71%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	31%	28%	+3
Hapoel Beit Shean or draw	70%	54%	+16
Hapoel Beit Shean clean sheet	30%	–	–
Hapoel Nazareth Illit clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.6 6.6 4.8 2.1 1 8.5 12.3 7.0 3.0 2 7.3 8.6 5.4 2.3 3 3.9 4.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Beit Shean down, Hapoel Nazareth Illit across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,452 Liga Alef matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Hapoel Beit Shean at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Nazareth Illit away: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Hapoel Beit Shean, 1.25 for Hapoel Nazareth Illit. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 5 Sept

HAPOEL BEIT SHEAN

LWW0–1 · 2–1 · 4–0

HAPOEL NAZARETH ILLIT

DWWLW2–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dimona	6	+4	15
2	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	6	+9	14
3	Tira	6	+7	14
4	Ironi Nesher	6	+13	13
5	Shimshon Tel Aviv	6	+7	13
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	6	+6	10
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	5	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
15	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
18	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	5	+1	7
19	Maccabi Ashdod	6	+1	7
20	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
21	Ironi Beit Shemesh	6	−6	7
22	Hapoel Beit Shean	3	+4	6
23	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	6	−3	6
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
25	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
26	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5
27	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
28	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	6	−4	5
29	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
30	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	6	−4	4
31	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0