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Hapoel Beit Shean v Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

Hapoel Beit Shean

1–1Full time

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

Liga Alef · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 03:22

Hapoel Beit Shean 1–1 Hapoel Ironi Karmiel HAPOEL IRONI KARMIEL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Hapoel Ironi Karmiel win~~35%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.722

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.799

Corrected on 20 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 1–0; the score is now 1–1 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hapoel Ironi Karmiel just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Beit Shean 34%, draw 31%, Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 35%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Beit Shean v Hapoel Ironi KarmielBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Hapoel Beit Shean win34%

Draw31%

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel win35%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:30

RoundNorth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Beit Shean

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

3Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Alef

Last match: 12 Oct · State Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
20	Hapoel Beit Shean	4	+4	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hapoel ironi karmiel winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

35% The market37%

Us35%

~~Market~~37%

We make Hapoel Ironi Karmiel a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Beit Shean v Hapoel Ironi Karmiel~~1.14 – 1.15

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 12~~20 v 7

~~The market · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel win~~37% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Beit Shean win	34%	36%	−2
Draw	31%	27%	+4
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel win	35%	37%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	40%	52%	−12
Both teams to score	46%	56%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	67%	75%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	20%	31%	−11
Hapoel Beit Shean or draw	65%	63%	+2
Hapoel Beit Shean clean sheet	33%	–	–
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 12.1 10.6 6.7 2.7 1 10.5 13.7 7.2 2.9 2 6.5 7.2 4.1 3 2.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Beit Shean down, Hapoel Ironi Karmiel across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,457 Liga Alef matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Beit Shean at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Ironi Karmiel away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Hapoel Beit Shean, 1.15 for Hapoel Ironi Karmiel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BEI 0–1 IRO · IRO 2–2 BEI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 4 Sept

HAPOEL BEIT SHEAN

LWWD0–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–1

HAPOEL IRONI KARMIEL

WWDDDW3–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	7	+8	17
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
4	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
5	Dimona	6	+4	15
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	6	+3	11
12	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
13	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
14	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
15	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
16	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
17	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	7	0	8
18	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
19	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
20	Hapoel Beit Shean	4	+4	7
21	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
22	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
23	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
24	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	−3	7
25	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
26	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
27	Tzeirey Tamra	7	−10	6
28	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
29	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	7	−5	5
30	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
31	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0