Hapoel Azor v Dimona prediction · Liga Alef

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Dimona are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hapoel Azor 26%, draw 29%, Dimona 44%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Hapoel Azor v DimonaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · postponed, not graded

Hapoel Azor win26%

Draw29%

Dimona win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundSouth · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hapoel Azor

Dimona

6Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · State Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dimona	6	+4	15
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dimona winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · postponed, not graded

44% The market45%

Us44%

~~Market~~45%

We make Dimona a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hapoel Azor v Dimona~~1.01 – 1.39

~~Form · Liga Alef this season · since 3 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 15~~17 v 2

~~The market · Dimona win~~45% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dimona win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hapoel Azor win	26%	27%	−1
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Dimona win	44%	45%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	43%	46%	−3
Both teams to score	47%	51%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	69%	70%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	26%	−4
Hapoel Azor or draw	56%	55%	+1
Hapoel Azor clean sheet	26%	–	–
Dimona clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.0 11.5 8.7 4.1 1 8.1 13.3 8.3 3.9 2 4.7 6.2 4.2 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hapoel Azor down, Dimona across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,454 Liga Alef matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hapoel Azor at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Dimona away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Hapoel Azor, 1.39 for Dimona. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~HAP 1–1 DIM · HAP 1–1 DIM · DIM 4–0 HAP · DIM 4–1 HAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga Alef this season · since 3 Sept

HAPOEL AZOR

LWLWDD0–3 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

DIMONA

WWWLWW2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–5 · 3–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
2	Dimona	6	+4	15
3	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	6	+9	14
4	Tira	6	+7	14
5	Shimshon Tel Aviv	6	+7	13
6	Beitar Nahariya	6	+4	13
7	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
8	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
9	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
10	FC Jerusalem	6	+4	11
11	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	6	+6	9
15	Hapoel Hadera	6	+4	9
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
18	Hapoel Beit Shean	4	+4	7
19	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	5	+1	7
20	Maccabi Ashdod	6	+1	7
21	Hapoel Sderot	6	−1	7
22	Ironi Beit Shemesh	6	−6	7
23	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	6	−3	6
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	−3	6
25	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
26	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5
27	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
28	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	6	−4	5
29	Kfar Saba 1928	6	−3	4
30	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	6	−4	4
31	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	6	−5	4
32	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	6	−12	2
35	Tzeirey Tira	6	−11	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0