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FC Jerusalem v Maccabi Kiryat Malachi

FC Jerusalem

0–1Full time

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi

Liga Alef · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 12:32

FC Jerusalem 0–1 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi FC JERUSALEM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Jerusalem win~~46%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.803

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.801

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Jerusalem win46%

Draw26%

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 10:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc jerusalem winPublished 9 Oct 10:02

46% The market45%

Us46%

~~Market~~45%

We make FC Jerusalem a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc jerusalem win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Jerusalem win	46%	45%	+1
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win	28%	28%	0
Over 2.5 goals	53%	49%	+4
Both teams to score	56%	53%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	72%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	32%	29%	+3
FC Jerusalem or draw	72%	72%	0
FC Jerusalem clean sheet	31%	–	–
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.5 6.3 4.4 1 8.8 12.0 6.6 2.8 2 7.7 8.8 5.2 2.2 3 4.3 4.9 2.9 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Jerusalem down, Maccabi Kiryat Malachi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,442 Liga Alef matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Jerusalem at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Maccabi Kiryat Malachi away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for FC Jerusalem, 1.21 for Maccabi Kiryat Malachi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FCJ 1–2 MAC · MAC 2–1 FCJ · MAC 0–1 FCJ · FCJ 0–0 MAC

Form · last six in Liga Alef

FC JERUSALEM

WWDWDW4–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

MACCABI KIRYAT MALACHI

DDWWWD0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	6	+7	14
2	Ironi Nesher	6	+13	13
3	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
4	Beitar Nahariya	5	+4	12
5	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
6	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
7	Dimona	5	+1	12
8	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	5	+8	11
9	FC Jerusalem	5	+5	11
10	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	5	+7	10
11	Shimshon Tel Aviv	5	+4	10
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	5	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	5	+6	8
15	Hapoel Hadera	5	+4	8
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
18	Hapoel Sderot	5	+2	7
19	Maccabi Ashdod	6	+1	7
20	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	4	+1	6
21	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
22	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5
23	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	5	−3	5
25	Kfar Saba 1928	5	0	4
26	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	5	−1	4
27	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	5	−4	4
28	Ironi Beit Shemesh	5	−8	4
29	Hapoel Beit Shean	2	0	3
30	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	5	−4	3
31	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
32	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	5	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	5	−12	1
35	Tzeirey Tira	5	−9	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0