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FC Jerusalem v Hapoel Sderot

FC Jerusalem

0–5Full time

Hapoel Sderot

Liga Alef · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 12:31

FC Jerusalem 0–5 Hapoel Sderot FC JERUSALEM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Jerusalem win~~51%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.874

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.780

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Jerusalem win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Jerusalem was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
1′KICK-OFF FC Jerusalem v Hapoel Sderot
23′Hapoel Sderot find the net on 23′. 0–0 · 47–27–25
23′We said FC Jerusalem at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–23–53
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' FC Jerusalem 0–1 Hapoel Sderot
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' FC Jerusalem win: 51% at kick-off, 24% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Hapoel Sderot win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was FC Jerusalem win 47%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 22–24–54
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' FC Jerusalem win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
33′A goal for Hapoel Sderot on 32′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 7–13–79
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' FC Jerusalem 0–2 Hapoel Sderot
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' FC Jerusalem win: 51% at kick-off, 7% now
34′We said FC Jerusalem at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–13–80
45′HALF-TIME FC Jerusalem 0–2 Hapoel Sderot
45′SECOND HALF FC Jerusalem 0–2 Hapoel Sderot
47′We said FC Jerusalem at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–3 · 1–3–96
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' FC Jerusalem 0–3 Hapoel Sderot
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' FC Jerusalem win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
48′Hapoel Sderot score on 47′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 1–3–96
78′A goal for Hapoel Sderot on 78′. 0–3 · 0–0–100
79′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' FC Jerusalem 0–4 Hapoel Sderot
86′FC Jerusalem find the net on 86′. 0–4 · 0–0–100
89′A goal for Hapoel Sderot on 89′ — 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' FC Jerusalem 0–5 Hapoel Sderot
90′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME FC Jerusalem 0–5 Hapoel Sderot
FTFC Jerusalem 0–5 Hapoel Sderot · FC Jerusalem win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Jerusalem are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Jerusalem 51%, draw 24%, Hapoel Sderot 25%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on FC Jerusalem v Hapoel SderotBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FC Jerusalem win51%

Draw24%

Hapoel Sderot win25%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 10:00

RoundSouth · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Jerusalem

Hapoel Sderot

4Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Alef

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	FC Jerusalem	7	+2	11
21	Hapoel Sderot	7	−1	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc jerusalem winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

51% The market45%

Us51%

~~Market~~45%

We make FC Jerusalem a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Jerusalem v Hapoel Sderot~~1.95 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 9 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 8~~12 v 21

~~The market · FC Jerusalem win~~45% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Jerusalem win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Jerusalem win	51%	45%	+6
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Hapoel Sderot win	25%	29%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	62%	56%	+6
Both teams to score	62%	59%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	78%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	41%	36%	+5
FC Jerusalem or draw	75%	71%	+4
FC Jerusalem clean sheet	28%	–	–
Hapoel Sderot clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.2 4.5 3.5 1 7.0 10.5 6.2 2.8 2 7.3 9.0 5.8 2.6 3 4.7 5.8 3.7 4 2.4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Jerusalem down, Hapoel Sderot across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,471 Liga Alef matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.6% of games this season, across 123 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

FC Jerusalem at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Sderot away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for FC Jerusalem, 1.30 for Hapoel Sderot. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 9 Sept

FC JERUSALEM

DWDWLL1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–4

HAPOEL SDEROT

LWLDLD1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	8	+10	20
2	Ironi Nesher	7	+17	16
3	Beitar Nahariya	7	+8	16
4	Shimshon Tel Aviv	7	+8	16
5	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	7	+9	15
6	Dimona	6	+4	15
7	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	7	+4	15
8	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	7	+6	13
9	Holon Yermiyahu	7	+5	13
10	Hapoel Herzliya	8	0	13
11	Hapoel Hadera	7	+5	12
12	FC Jerusalem	7	+2	11
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	6	+2	11
14	Hapoel Azor	7	+2	11
15	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	7	+2	10
16	Maccabi Yavne	7	+4	9
17	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	6	+2	9
18	Hapoel Beit Shean	5	+4	8
19	Hapoel Marmorek	7	+1	8
20	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	7	0	8
21	Hapoel Sderot	7	−1	8
22	Ironi Beit Shemesh	7	−6	8
23	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	0	7
24	Maccabi Ashdod	7	0	7
25	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	−3	7
26	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	7	−2	6
27	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	7	−4	6
28	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	7	−4	6
29	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	7	−4	6
30	Tzeirey Tamra	7	−10	6
31	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	7	−11	5
32	Kfar Saba 1928	7	−4	4
33	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	8	−11	4
34	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
35	Tzeirey Tira	7	−12	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	7	−19	0