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Dimona v Hapoel Sderot

Dimona

4–1Full time

Hapoel Sderot

Liga Alef · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 14:32

Dimona 4–1 Hapoel Sderot DIMONA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dimona win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.487

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.496

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Dimona win43%

Draw27%

Hapoel Sderot win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 11:35

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dimona winPublished 9 Oct 11:32

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make Dimona a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dimona win	43%	42%	+1
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Hapoel Sderot win	29%	29%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	45%	+4
Both teams to score	53%	51%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	70%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	25%	+3
Dimona or draw	71%	71%	0
Dimona clean sheet	32%	–	–
Hapoel Sderot clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.5 7.4 4.9 2.0 1 9.4 12.7 6.9 2.8 2 7.6 8.6 5.0 2.0 3 3.8 4.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dimona down, Hapoel Sderot across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,442 Liga Alef matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Dimona at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hapoel Sderot away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Dimona, 1.18 for Hapoel Sderot. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga Alef

DIMONA

LWWWLW1–4 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–5 · 3–2

HAPOEL SDEROT

WLWLD4–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	6	+7	14
2	Ironi Nesher	6	+13	13
3	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
4	Beitar Nahariya	5	+4	12
5	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
6	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
7	Dimona	5	+1	12
8	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	5	+8	11
9	FC Jerusalem	5	+5	11
10	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	5	+7	10
11	Shimshon Tel Aviv	5	+4	10
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	5	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	5	+6	8
15	Hapoel Hadera	5	+4	8
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
18	Hapoel Sderot	5	+2	7
19	Maccabi Ashdod	6	+1	7
20	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	4	+1	6
21	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
22	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5
23	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	5	−3	5
25	Kfar Saba 1928	5	0	4
26	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	5	−1	4
27	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	5	−4	4
28	Ironi Beit Shemesh	5	−8	4
29	Hapoel Beit Shean	2	0	3
30	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	5	−4	3
31	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
32	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	5	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	5	−12	1
35	Tzeirey Tira	5	−9	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0