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Beitar Nahariya v Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Beitar Nahariya

1–1Full time

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Liga Alef · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 13:31

Beitar Nahariya 1–1 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm BEITAR NAHARIYA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Beitar Nahariya win~~47%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.860

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.891

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Beitar Nahariya win47%

Draw25%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 11:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · beitar nahariya winPublished 9 Oct 11:02

47% The market53%

Us47%

~~Market~~53%

We make Beitar Nahariya a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · beitar nahariya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Beitar Nahariya win	47%	53%	−6
Draw	25%	25%	0
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win	28%	22%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	57%	53%	+4
Both teams to score	59%	54%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	76%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	36%	32%	+4
Beitar Nahariya or draw	72%	78%	−6
Beitar Nahariya clean sheet	29%	–	–
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.4 5.6 4.1 1 7.8 11.5 6.7 2.9 2 7.4 8.9 5.6 2.4 3 4.3 5.2 3.3 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Beitar Nahariya down, Hapoel Umm al-Fahm across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,442 Liga Alef matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Alef matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Beitar Nahariya at home: 2.50 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). Hapoel Umm al-Fahm away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Beitar Nahariya, 1.27 for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga Alef

BEITAR NAHARIYA

WWWWL1–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–4

HAPOEL UMM AL-FAHM

LDDWDD0–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tira	6	+7	14
2	Ironi Nesher	6	+13	13
3	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	6	+6	12
4	Beitar Nahariya	5	+4	12
5	Hapoel Herzliya	6	+4	12
6	Hapoel Ramat HaSharon	6	+3	12
7	Dimona	5	+1	12
8	Maccabi Kiryat Malachi	5	+8	11
9	FC Jerusalem	5	+5	11
10	Maccabi K. Ata Bialik	5	+7	10
11	Shimshon Tel Aviv	5	+4	10
12	Holon Yermiyahu	6	+3	10
13	Hapoel Nazareth Illit	5	+2	10
14	Maccabi Yavne	5	+6	8
15	Hapoel Hadera	5	+4	8
16	Hapoel Migdal HaEmek	5	+2	8
17	Hapoel Azor	6	−2	8
18	Hapoel Sderot	5	+2	7
19	Maccabi Ashdod	6	+1	7
20	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	4	+1	6
21	Tzeirey Tamra	6	−8	6
22	Ironi Baka El Garbiya	6	−2	5
23	Hapoel Marmorek	6	−2	5
24	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	5	−3	5
25	Kfar Saba 1928	5	0	4
26	Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel	5	−1	4
27	Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt	5	−4	4
28	Ironi Beit Shemesh	5	−8	4
29	Hapoel Beit Shean	2	0	3
30	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	5	−4	3
31	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	6	−4	3
32	Maccabi Neve Sha'anan	5	−4	3
33	Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm	4	−4	3
34	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	5	−12	1
35	Tzeirey Tira	5	−9	0
36	Nordia Jerusalem	6	−16	0