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Beitar Nahariya v Hapoel Beit Shean

Beitar Nahariya
0–2Full time
Hapoel Beit Shean

Liga Alef · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 13:31
Beitar Nahariya 0–2 Hapoel Beit Shean BEITAR NAHARIYA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Beitar Nahariya win42%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.733
The market’s Brier score0.961

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Beitar Nahariya win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Beitar Nahariya 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–31
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Beitar Nahariya v Hapoel Beit Shean
  4. 13′Hapoel Beit Shean find the net on 13′. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–22–60
  5. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Beitar Nahariya 0–1 Hapoel Beit Shean
  6. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Beitar Nahariya win: 42% at kick-off, 18% now
  7. 13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Hapoel Beit Shean win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Beitar Nahariya win 40%)
  8. 14′We said Beitar Nahariya at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–22–60
  9. 27′Hapoel Beit Shean ahead on 14′ through R. Tahaish. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–23–62
  10. 30′We said Beitar Nahariya at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
  11. 31′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 14–23–63
  12. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Beitar Nahariya win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Beitar Nahariya 0–1 Hapoel Beit Shean
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Beitar Nahariya 0–1 Hapoel Beit Shean
  15. 49′We said Beitar Nahariya at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
  16. 62′A goal for Hapoel Beit Shean on 62′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
  17. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Beitar Nahariya 0–2 Hapoel Beit Shean
  18. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Beitar Nahariya win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
  19. 63′We said Beitar Nahariya at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
  20. FTFULL TIME Beitar Nahariya 0–2 Hapoel Beit Shean
  21. FTBeitar Nahariya 0–2 Hapoel Beit Shean · Beitar Nahariya win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Beitar Nahariya are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Beitar Nahariya 42%, draw 28%, Hapoel Beit Shean 31%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Beitar Nahariya v Hapoel Beit SheanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Beitar Nahariya win42%
Draw28%
Hapoel Beit Shean win31%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 11:00

RoundNorth · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Beitar Nahariya

Hapoel Beit Shean

4Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Alef

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Alef

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Beitar Nahariya7+816
18Hapoel Beit Shean5+48

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · beitar nahariya winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
42% The market53%
Us42%
Market53%

We make Beitar Nahariya a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Beitar Nahariya v Hapoel Beit Shean1.45 – 1.20
Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 10 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L1
Table places · points 16 v 83 v 18
The market · Beitar Nahariya win53% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2323 OCT 10:43
Our probability · Beitar Nahariya win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Beitar Nahariya win42%53%−11
Draw28%26%+2
Hapoel Beit Shean win31%22%+9
Over 2.5 goals49%51%−2
Both teams to score53%53%0
Over 1.5 goals74%74%0
Over 3.5 goals28%30%−2
Beitar Nahariya or draw69%78%−9
Beitar Nahariya clean sheet31%––
Hapoel Beit Shean clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%
0123450 8.7 7.6 5.2 2.1 1 9.3 12.8 7.1 2.9 2 7.4 8.5 5.0 2.1 3 3.6 4.2 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Beitar Nahariya down, Hapoel Beit Shean across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Alef this season · since 10 Sept

BEITAR NAHARIYA

WWWLDW2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 4–0

HAPOEL BEIT SHEAN

LWWDD0–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Tira8+1020
2Ironi Nesher7+1716
3Beitar Nahariya7+816
4Shimshon Tel Aviv7+816
5Maccabi Kiryat Malachi7+915
6Dimona6+415
7Hapoel Ramat HaSharon7+415
8Hapoel Ironi Karmiel7+613
9Holon Yermiyahu7+513
10Hapoel Herzliya8013
11Hapoel Hadera7+512
12FC Jerusalem7+211
13Hapoel Nazareth Illit6+211
14Hapoel Azor7+211
15Maccabi K. Ata Bialik7+210
16Maccabi Yavne7+49
17Hapoel Migdal HaEmek6+29
18Hapoel Beit Shean5+48
19Hapoel Marmorek7+18
20Ironi Baka El Garbiya708
21Hapoel Sderot7−18
22Ironi Beit Shemesh7−68
23Hapoel Umm al-Fahm607
24Maccabi Ashdod707
25Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed7−37
26Hapoel Mahane Yehuda7−26
27Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt7−46
28Maccabi Neve Sha'anan7−46
29Hapoel Bnei Musmus7−46
30Tzeirey Tamra7−106
31Hapoel Ironi Arraba7−115
32Kfar Saba 19287−44
33Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel8−114
34Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm4−43
35Tzeirey Tira7−120
36Nordia Jerusalem7−190

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.