St Patrick's Athl. v Shelbourne

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said St Patrick's Athl. win at 50%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: St Patrick's Athl. was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–27–23
3. 1′KICK-OFF St Patrick's Athl. v Shelbourne
4. 15′PENALTY MISSED · 15' St Patrick's Athl.
5. 22′7 shots for St Patrick's Athl., 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 46–32–22
6. 26′St Patrick's Athl. have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 45–33–22
7. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' St Patrick's Athl. win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
8. 43′We published St Patrick's Athl. at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
9. 43′Jamie Lennon scores for St Patrick's Athl. on 43′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
10. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' St Patrick's Athl. 1–0 Shelbourne
11. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' St Patrick's Athl. win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
12. 44′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 80–16–4
13. 45′HALF-TIME St Patrick's Athl. 1–0 Shelbourne
14. 46′SECOND HALF St Patrick's Athl. 1–0 Shelbourne
15. 50′We said St Patrick's Athl. at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–45–19
16. 50′49′: Sean Moore on the scoresheet for Shelbourne, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 36–45–19
17. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' St Patrick's Athl. 1–1 Shelbourne
18. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' St Patrick's Athl. win: 50% at kick-off, 36% now
19. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was St Patrick's Athl. win 36%)
20. 51′St Patrick's Athl. have had 12 attempts to 7 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 36–45–19
21. 54′We said St Patrick's Athl. at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–47–18
22. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' St Patrick's Athl. win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
23. 62′We said St Patrick's Athl. at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–54–16
24. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' St Patrick's Athl. · On: Ryan Sheridan · Off: Kian Leavy
25. 66′St Patrick's Athl. have had 16 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 27–58–15
26. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Shelbourne · On: Jonathan Lunney · Off: Marco Untergrabner
27. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Shelbourne · On: John Martin · Off: Ademipo Odubeko
28. 69′We said St Patrick's Athl. at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–62–14
29. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Shelbourne · On: Sam Bone · Off: James Norris
30. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Shelbourne · On: Alistair Coote · Off: Jack Henry-Francis
31. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' St Patrick's Athl. · On: Christopher Forrester · Off: Barry Baggley
32. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' St Patrick's Athl. · On: Ryan Edmondson · Off: Anthony Olusanya
33. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' St Patrick's Athl. win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
34. 75′We said St Patrick's Athl. at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–11
35. 76′St Patrick's Athl. have had 20 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 18–71–11
36. 80′We said St Patrick's Athl. at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–78–8
37. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Jason McClelland · St Patrick's Athl.
38. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Daniel Kelly · Shelbourne
39. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' St Patrick's Athl. win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
40. 84′We said St Patrick's Athl. at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
41. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' St Patrick's Athl. · On: Romal Palmer · Off: Aidan Keena
42. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' St Patrick's Athl. · On: James Brown · Off: Jason McClelland
43. 85′Shelbourne ahead on 84′ through Daniel Kelly. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–8–92
44. 85′We said St Patrick's Athl. at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–8–92
45. 85′⚽ GOAL · 84' St Patrick's Athl. 1–2 Shelbourne · Daniel Kelly
46. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' St Patrick's Athl. win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
47. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Shelbourne win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
48. 86′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–7–93
49. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Shelbourne · On: Sean Boyd · Off: Sean Moore
50. 92′A red card for Shelbourne on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 0–3–97
51. 92′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Alistair Coote · Shelbourne
52. 95′St Patrick's Athl. have had 24 attempts to 10 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
53. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Eddie Beach · Shelbourne
54. FTFULL TIME St Patrick's Athl. 1–2 Shelbourne
55. FTSt Patrick's Athl. 1–2 Shelbourne · St Patrick's Athl. win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.