St Patrick's Athl. v Bohemians prediction · Premier Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

St Patrick's Athl.DrawBohemians

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · St Patrick's Athl. 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

St Patrick's Athl. are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: St Patrick's Athl. 48%, draw 28%, Bohemians 24%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on St Patrick's Athl. v BohemiansBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

St Patrick's Athl. win48%

Draw28%

Bohemians win24%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 36

VenueRichmond Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

St Patrick's Athl.

Bohemians

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bohemians	35	+18	62
3	St Patrick's Athl.	35	+25	60

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · st patrick's athl. winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

48% The market45%

Us48%

~~Market~~45%

We make St Patrick's Athl. a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · St Patrick's Athl. v Bohemians~~1.50 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 60 v 62~~3 v 2

~~The market · St Patrick's Athl. win~~45% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · St Patrick's Athl. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
St Patrick's Athl. win	48%	45%	+3
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Bohemians win	24%	28%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	45%	52%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	56%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	31%	−7
St Patrick's Athl. or draw	76%	72%	+4
St Patrick's Athl. clean sheet	37%	–	–
Bohemians clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.2 7.4 4.1 1 11.6 13.0 6.1 2.0 2 9.2 9.1 4.5 3 4.6 4.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+St Patrick's Athl. down, Bohemians across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,080 Premier Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bohemians away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for St Patrick's Athl., 1.00 for Bohemians. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~STP 0–0 BOH · BOH 2–0 STP · STP 3–1 BOH · BOH 0–0 STP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 11 Sept

ST PATRICK'S ATHL.

WWWLLD2–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

BOHEMIANS

WWWLWL3–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	35	+23	68
2	Bohemians	35	+18	62
3	St Patrick's Athl.	35	+25	60
4	Shelbourne	35	+3	49
5	Derry City	35	+3	47
6	Galway United	35	−5	42
7	Dundalk	35	−6	42
8	Waterford	35	−8	40
9	Drogheda United	35	−15	37
10	Sligo Rovers	35	−38	24