Sligo Rovers v Dundalk prediction · Premier Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31

Sligo Rovers 1–1 Dundalk DUNDALK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Dundalk win~~38%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.800

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.935

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dundalk win at 38%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Dundalk 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 35–27–37
2′KICK-OFF Sligo Rovers v Dundalk
19′Dundalk have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 34–30–36
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Tyreke Wilson · Dundalk
22′8 shots for Dundalk, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 34–31–35
26′SUBSTITUTION · 25' Dundalk · On: Egor Vassenin · Off: Mayowa Animasahun
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Dundalk win 32%)
42′Dundalk have had 13 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 31–38–32
45′HALF-TIME Sligo Rovers 0–0 Dundalk
45′SECOND HALF Sligo Rovers 0–0 Dundalk
47′16 shots for Dundalk, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 30–39–31
47′We said Dundalk at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Sligo Rovers 1–0 Dundalk
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Dundalk win: 38% at kick-off, 9% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Sligo Rovers win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sligo Rovers · On: Seb Quirk · Off: A. Gabbidon
48′46′: Kaiyne Woolery on the scoresheet for Sligo Rovers, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 70–22–9
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Dundalk win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
59′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Luke Young · Sligo Rovers
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' sean stewart · Sligo Rovers
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Dundalk · On: shane tracey · Off: Aodh Dervin
65′We said Dundalk at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Dundalk · On: Declan McDaid · Off: Trevor Clarke
FTFULL TIME Sligo Rovers 1–1 Dundalk
FTSligo Rovers 1–1 Dundalk · Dundalk win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Dundalk just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sligo Rovers 35%, draw 27%, Dundalk 38%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Sligo Rovers v DundalkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sligo Rovers win35%

Draw27%

Dundalk win38%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 34

VenueThe Showgrounds

Line-ups

Sligo Rovers

4-2-3-1

Dundalk

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sligo Rovers

Dundalk

8Days since last match15

Last match: 9 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

Last match: 2 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Dundalk	33	−5	41
10	Sligo Rovers	33	−34	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sligo Rovers

4-2-3-1

1 Liam John Hughes

51 Aidan Gabbidon

15 O. Denham

52 G. McElroy

3 Sean Stewart

6 L. Young

71 D. Patton

41 K. Woolery

10 A. Meekison

7 J. Shorrock

11 C. Kavanagh

Coach · D. Purse

Substitutes

23 · K. McDonagh

14 · J. McManus

9 · L. Pearce

4 · S. Quirk

48 · Ross Ruane-Dalton

50 · Ruben Gillespie

61 · Conor Cannon

77 · Kevin Zefi

60 · R. Brush

Dundalk

4-2-3-1

1 E. Minogue

3 B. Burns

4 M. Animasahun

44 T. Grivosti

22 T. Wilson

18 K. Buckley

6 A. Dervin

15 T. Clarke

11 R. Teahan

7 D. Horgan

9 C. Dillon

Coach · C. Kilduff

Substitutes

17 · S. Tracey

16 · E. Vassenin

5 · H. Warren

20 · S. Safaei

12 · L. Mulligan

27 · D. McDaid

8 · H. Groome

10 · Leonardo Gaxha

14 · Norman Garbett

Our number · dundalk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market54%

Us38%

~~Market~~54%

We make Dundalk a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sligo Rovers v Dundalk~~1.36 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 21 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 23 v 41~~10 v 7

~~The market · Dundalk win~~54% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dundalk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sligo Rovers win	35%	22%	+13
Draw	27%	23%	+4
Dundalk win	38%	54%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	52%	61%	−9
Both teams to score	57%	61%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	81%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	40%	−10
Sligo Rovers or draw	62%	46%	+16
Sligo Rovers clean sheet	25%	–	–
Dundalk clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.2 8.0 6.2 2.9 1 7.7 12.7 8.3 4.0 2 5.8 8.1 5.7 2.7 3 2.7 3.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sligo Rovers down, Dundalk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,072 Premier Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 167 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sligo Rovers at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dundalk away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Sligo Rovers, 1.41 for Dundalk. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 19:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DUN 1–1 SLI · SLI 2–0 DUN · DUN 1–0 SLI · DUN 0–2 SLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 21 Aug

SLIGO ROVERS

DLLLLL0–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–5

DUNDALK

LWDLLL1–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	34	+19	65
2	Bohemians	34	+19	62
3	St Patrick's Athl.	33	+26	59
4	Shelbourne	34	+2	46
5	Derry City	33	+1	41
6	Galway United	33	−4	41
7	Dundalk	33	−5	41
8	Drogheda United	34	−13	37
9	Waterford	33	−11	34
10	Sligo Rovers	33	−34	23