Sligo Rovers v Derry City prediction · Premier Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sligo RoversDrawDerry City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Derry City 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Derry City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sligo Rovers 25%, draw 28%, Derry City 47%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Sligo Rovers v Derry CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Sligo Rovers win25%

Draw28%

Derry City win47%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 36

VenueShowgrounds

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sligo Rovers

Derry City

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Derry City	35	+3	47
10	Sligo Rovers	35	−38	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · derry city winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

47% The market58%

Us47%

~~Market~~58%

We make Derry City a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sligo Rovers v Derry City~~1.02 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 47~~10 v 5

~~The market · Derry City win~~58% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Derry City win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sligo Rovers win	25%	19%	+6
Draw	28%	23%	+5
Derry City win	47%	58%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	46%	54%	−8
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	24%	34%	−10
Sligo Rovers or draw	53%	42%	+11
Sligo Rovers clean sheet	23%	–	–
Derry City clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.2 11.3 9.0 4.5 1 7.6 13.1 9.0 4.5 2 4.3 6.2 4.6 2.3 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sligo Rovers down, Derry City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,080 Premier Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sligo Rovers at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Derry City away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Sligo Rovers, 1.48 for Derry City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DER 2–0 SLI · SLI 0–0 DER · DER 2–1 SLI · DER 1–0 SLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 11 Sept

SLIGO ROVERS

LLLLDL0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–5 · 1–1 · 0–4

DERRY CITY

WDWLWW1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	35	+23	68
2	Bohemians	35	+18	62
3	St Patrick's Athl.	35	+25	60
4	Shelbourne	35	+3	49
5	Derry City	35	+3	47
6	Galway United	35	−5	42
7	Dundalk	35	−6	42
8	Waterford	35	−8	40
9	Drogheda United	35	−15	37
10	Sligo Rovers	35	−38	24