Shelbourne v Waterford prediction · Premier Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ShelbourneDrawWaterford

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Shelbourne 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shelbourne are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shelbourne 54%, draw 24%, Waterford 22%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Shelbourne v WaterfordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Shelbourne win54%

Draw24%

Waterford win22%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 36

VenueTolka Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shelbourne

Waterford

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Shelbourne	35	+3	49
8	Waterford	35	−8	40

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shelbourne winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

54% The market50%

Us54%

~~Market~~50%

We make Shelbourne a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shelbourne v Waterford~~1.81 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 11 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 49 v 40~~4 v 8

~~The market · Shelbourne win~~50% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shelbourne win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shelbourne win	54%	50%	+4
Draw	24%	24%	0
Waterford win	22%	26%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	62%	−7
Both teams to score	55%	63%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	79%	82%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	42%	−9
Shelbourne or draw	78%	74%	+4
Shelbourne clean sheet	35%	–	–
Waterford clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.5 5.4 3.3 1 9.5 11.5 5.8 2.1 2 9.2 9.7 5.2 3 5.5 5.8 3.1 4 2.5 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shelbourne down, Waterford across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,080 Premier Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shelbourne at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Waterford away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Shelbourne, 1.07 for Waterford. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~WAT 1–0 SHE · SHE 2–1 WAT · WAT 1–1 SHE · SHE 2–1 WAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 11 Sept

SHELBOURNE

LWDWWW1–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

WATERFORD

DDLLWW1–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	35	+23	68
2	Bohemians	35	+18	62
3	St Patrick's Athl.	35	+25	60
4	Shelbourne	35	+3	49
5	Derry City	35	+3	47
6	Galway United	35	−5	42
7	Dundalk	35	−6	42
8	Waterford	35	−8	40
9	Drogheda United	35	−15	37
10	Sligo Rovers	35	−38	24