Home › Football › Premier Division › Shelbourne v Sligo Rovers

Shelbourne v Sligo Rovers

Shelbourne

5–1Full time

Sligo Rovers

Premier Division · FRI 9 OCT · Tolka Park

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Shelbourne 5–1 Sligo Rovers SHELBOURNE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shelbourne win~~55%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.306

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.111

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 46 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shelbourne win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Shelbourne was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–25–19
1′KICK-OFF Shelbourne v Sligo Rovers
11′A goal for Shelbourne on 12′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 54–27–19
11′⚽ GOAL · 12' Shelbourne 0–0 Sligo Rovers
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Shelbourne 1–0 Sligo Rovers
17′We published Shelbourne at 55%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–14–5
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Shelbourne win: 55% at kick-off, 81% now
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Kaiyne Woolery · Sligo Rovers
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Jack Henry-Francis · Shelbourne
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Shelbourne 1–1 Sligo Rovers · Daniel Kelly
45′SECOND HALF Shelbourne 1–1 Sligo Rovers
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Shelbourne 1–1 Sligo Rovers · Kaiyne Woolery
46′SECOND HALF Shelbourne 1–1 Sligo Rovers
47′SECOND HALF Shelbourne 1–1 Sligo Rovers
48′SECOND HALF Shelbourne 1–1 Sligo Rovers
49′SECOND HALF Shelbourne 1–1 Sligo Rovers
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Shelbourne 2–1 Sligo Rovers · Kaiyne Woolery
49′⚽ GOAL · 50' Shelbourne 2–1 Sligo Rovers · Ademipo Odubeko
50′SECOND HALF Shelbourne 1–1 Sligo Rovers
51′SECOND HALF Shelbourne 1–1 Sligo Rovers
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Shelbourne 3–1 Sligo Rovers · Ademipo Odubeko
52′SECOND HALF Shelbourne 1–1 Sligo Rovers
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Shelbourne 3–1 Sligo Rovers · Ademipo Odubeko
52′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Shelbourne · On: John Martin · Off: Ademipo Odubeko
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Shelbourne 3–1 Sligo Rovers · John Martin
53′SECOND HALF Shelbourne 1–1 Sligo Rovers
54′SECOND HALF Shelbourne 1–1 Sligo Rovers
55′SECOND HALF Shelbourne 1–1 Sligo Rovers
56′SECOND HALF Shelbourne 1–1 Sligo Rovers
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Odhran Casey · Shelbourne
57′SECOND HALF Shelbourne 1–1 Sligo Rovers
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Shelbourne 4–1 Sligo Rovers · John Martin
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Shelbourne 4–1 Sligo Rovers · Milan Bernhard Mbeng
58′SECOND HALF Shelbourne 1–1 Sligo Rovers
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sligo Rovers · On: Daire Patton · Off: James McManus
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Shelbourne 5–1 Sligo Rovers · Milan Bernhard Mbeng
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sligo Rovers · On: Cian Kavanagh · Off: Archie Meekison
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Shelbourne 5–1 Sligo Rovers · John Martin
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Sligo Rovers · On: Seb Quirk · Off: Ruben Gillespie
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Milan Bernhard Mbeng · Shelbourne
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Shelbourne · On: Marco Untergrabner · Off: Milan Bernhard Mbeng
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sligo Rovers · On: Kevin Zefi · Off: A. Gabbidon
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sligo Rovers · On: Kevin Zefi · Off: A. Gabbidon
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Shelbourne · On: james roche · Off: James Norris
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Shelbourne · On: Sean Boyd · Off: Daniel Kelly
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Luke Young · Sligo Rovers
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Sligo Rovers · On: Luke Pearce · Off: Kaiyne Woolery
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Sean Moore · Shelbourne
FTFULL TIME Shelbourne 5–1 Sligo Rovers
FTShelbourne 5–1 Sligo Rovers · Shelbourne win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Shelbourne win55%

Draw26%

Sligo Rovers win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Tolka Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Shelbourne

3-4-3

19 E. Beach

16 O. Casey

17 D. Kelly

4 K. Ledwidge

25 M. Mbeng

21 Jack Henry-Francis

23 K. McInroy

18 James Barry Norris

22 S. Moore

11 M. Odubeko

27 E. Caffrey

Coach · J. Russell

Substitutes

15 · S. Bone

9 · S. Boyd

14 · A. Coote

36 · W. Jarvis

10 · J. Martin

44 · Daniel Ring

55 · James Roche

24 · M. Untergrabner

31 · C. Walsh

Sligo Rovers

4-2-3-1

1 Liam John Hughes

51 Aidan Gabbidon

52 G. McElroy

16 C. McHugh

3 Sean Stewart

6 L. Young

50 Ruben Gillespie

10 A. Meekison

14 J. McManus

7 J. Shorrock

41 K. Woolery

Coach · D. Purse

Substitutes

15 · O. Denham

11 · C. Kavanagh

71 · D. Patton

9 · L. Pearce

4 · S. Quirk

77 · Kevin Zefi

48 · Ross Ruane-Dalton

61 · Conor Cannon

60 · Charlie Mcgarvey

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Shelbourne

3-4-3

19 E. Beach

16 O. Casey

17 D. Kelly

4 K. Ledwidge

25 M. Mbeng

21 Jack Henry-Francis

23 K. McInroy

18 James Barry Norris

22 S. Moore

11 M. Odubeko

27 E. Caffrey

Coach · J. Russell

Substitutes

15 · S. Bone

9 · S. Boyd

14 · A. Coote

36 · W. Jarvis

10 · J. Martin

44 · Daniel Ring

55 · James Roche

24 · M. Untergrabner

31 · C. Walsh

Sligo Rovers

4-2-3-1

1 Liam John Hughes

51 Aidan Gabbidon

52 G. McElroy

16 C. McHugh

3 Sean Stewart

6 L. Young

50 Ruben Gillespie

10 A. Meekison

14 J. McManus

7 J. Shorrock

41 K. Woolery

Coach · D. Purse

Substitutes

15 · O. Denham

11 · C. Kavanagh

71 · D. Patton

9 · L. Pearce

4 · S. Quirk

77 · Kevin Zefi

48 · Ross Ruane-Dalton

61 · Conor Cannon

60 · Charlie Mcgarvey

Our number · shelbourne winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

55% The market73%

Us55%

~~Market~~73%

We make Shelbourne a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · shelbourne win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 68% to 73% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shelbourne win	55%	73%	−18
Draw	26%	17%	+9
Sligo Rovers win	19%	10%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	45%	65%	−19
Both teams to score	47%	53%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	83%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	24%	44%	−20
Shelbourne or draw	81%	90%	−9
Shelbourne clean sheet	43%	–	–
Sligo Rovers clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 9.2 6.3 3.0 1 12.7 12.3 4.9 2 11.0 9.3 4.0 3 6.1 5.1 2.2 4 2.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shelbourne down, Sligo Rovers across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,066 Premier Division matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

19 previous meetings, 2.37 goals a meeting; 10 of 19 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shelbourne at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sligo Rovers away: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Shelbourne, 0.85 for Sligo Rovers. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

19 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.37

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 19

~~Both scored~~10 of 19

~~Last meetings~~SLI 2–2 SHE · SHE 0–0 SLI · SLI 0–1 SHE · SHE 3–1 SLI

Form · last six in Premier Division

SHELBOURNE

DDLLWD1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–1

SLIGO ROVERS

LDLLLL0–2 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	32	+20	62
2	St Patrick's Athl.	32	+27	59
3	Bohemians	32	+19	59
4	Derry City	32	+3	41
5	Dundalk	33	−5	41
6	Shelbourne	32	−3	40
7	Galway United	32	−6	38
8	Waterford	32	−10	34
9	Drogheda United	33	−15	34
10	Sligo Rovers	32	−30	23