Shamrock Rovers v Sligo Rovers prediction · Premier Division

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Shamrock Rovers 4–0 Sligo Rovers SHAMROCK ROVERS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shamrock Rovers win~~67%

~~The market said~~81%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.171

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.055

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shamrock Rovers win at 67%.
1′Much as we predicted: Shamrock Rovers was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 66–21–12
1′KICK-OFF Shamrock Rovers v Sligo Rovers
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Shamrock Rovers win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
36′We said Shamrock Rovers at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 55–31–13
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' William Fitzgerald · Shamrock Rovers
39′We published Shamrock Rovers at 67%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–11–3
39′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 87–11–3
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Shamrock Rovers 1–0 Sligo Rovers
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Shamrock Rovers win: 67% at kick-off, 87% now
40′Adam Brennan scores for Shamrock Rovers on 39′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 87–11–2
41′We published Shamrock Rovers at 67%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Shamrock Rovers 2–0 Sligo Rovers
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Shamrock Rovers win: 67% at kick-off, 98% now
42′41′: Adam Brennan on the scoresheet for Shamrock Rovers, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
45′HALF-TIME Shamrock Rovers 2–0 Sligo Rovers
45′SECOND HALF Shamrock Rovers 2–0 Sligo Rovers
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Shamrock Rovers · On: Jake Mulraney · Off: William Fitzgerald
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Sligo Rovers · On: Luke Pearce · Off: James McManus
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Sligo Rovers · On: Cian Kavanagh · Off: Archie Meekison
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Shamrock Rovers · On: Aaron Greene · Off: John McGovern
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sligo Rovers · On: A. Gabbidon · Off: Daire Patton
71′We published Shamrock Rovers at 67%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Shamrock Rovers 3–0 Sligo Rovers
72′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′Shamrock Rovers ahead on 71′ through Aaron Greene. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Jack Shorrock · Sligo Rovers
74′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Shamrock Rovers 4–0 Sligo Rovers
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Shamrock Rovers · On: Luke O'Regan · Off: Tunmise Sobowale
76′Dylan Watts scores for Shamrock Rovers on 74′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Shamrock Rovers · On: Jonathan Afolabi · Off: Graham Burke
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Shamrock Rovers · On: Gary O'Neill · Off: Dylan Watts
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sligo Rovers · On: kyle mcdonagh · Off: sean stewart
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sligo Rovers · On: Ryan O'Kane · Off: Kaiyne Woolery
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Seb Quirk · Sligo Rovers
92′Full time, 4–0. We called Shamrock Rovers at 67% — that one lands. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Shamrock Rovers 4–0 Sligo Rovers
FTShamrock Rovers 4–0 Sligo Rovers · Shamrock Rovers win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shamrock Rovers are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shamrock Rovers 67%, draw 21%, Sligo Rovers 12%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Shamrock Rovers v Sligo RoversBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Shamrock Rovers win67%

Draw21%

Sligo Rovers win12%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueTallaght Stadium

Line-ups

Shamrock Rovers

3-4-2-1

Sligo Rovers

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shamrock Rovers

Sligo Rovers

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

Last match: 17 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Shamrock Rovers

3-4-2-1

1 E. McGinty

6 D. Cleary

4 Pico

5 L. Grace

22 T. Sobowale

24 W. Fitzgerald

26 John O'Sullivan

19 A. Brennan

7 D. Watts

10 G. Burke

88 J. McGovern

Coach · S. Bradley

Substitutes

18 · J. Afolabi

9 · A. Greene

34 · B. Mahon

2 · A. Matthews

11 · J. Mulraney

16 · G. O'Neill

17 · L. O'Regan

27 · C. O'Sullivan

25 · L. Steacy

Sligo Rovers

4-2-3-1

1 Liam John Hughes

4 S. Quirk

15 O. Denham

52 G. McElroy

3 Sean Stewart

6 L. Young

71 D. Patton

10 A. Meekison

14 J. McManus

7 J. Shorrock

41 K. Woolery

Coach · D. Purse

Substitutes

9 · L. Pearce

28 · R. O'Kane

11 · C. Kavanagh

49 · Ross Ruane-Dalton

61 · Conor Cannon

51 · Aidan Gabbidon

23 · K. McDonagh

32 · Charlie Mcgarvey

24 · J. O'Donnell

Our number · shamrock rovers winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

67% The market81%

Us67%

~~Market~~81%

We make Shamrock Rovers a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shamrock Rovers v Sligo Rovers~~2.03 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 65 v 24~~1 v 10

~~The market · Shamrock Rovers win~~81% · ours 67%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shamrock Rovers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shamrock Rovers win	67%	81%	−14
Draw	21%	13%	+8
Sligo Rovers win	12%	6%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	52%	65%	−13
Both teams to score	46%	41%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	83%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	30%	43%	−13
Shamrock Rovers or draw	88%	94%	−6
Shamrock Rovers clean sheet	48%	–	–
Sligo Rovers clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.8%

0123450 7.1 4.0 1 12.1 10.0 3.5 2 12.8 9.4 3.5 3 8.7 6.3 2.3 4 4.5 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shamrock Rovers down, Sligo Rovers across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,075 Premier Division matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.8% of games this season, across 170 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sligo Rovers away: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Shamrock Rovers, 0.74 for Sligo Rovers. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SLI 1–2 SHA · SHA 1–2 SLI · SLI 0–2 SHA · SHA 1–2 SLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 28 Aug

SHAMROCK ROVERS

DLWWWL0–0 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

SLIGO ROVERS

LLLLLD0–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–5 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	34	+19	65
2	Bohemians	34	+19	62
3	St Patrick's Athl.	34	+25	59
4	Shelbourne	34	+2	46
5	Derry City	34	+2	44
6	Dundalk	34	−5	42
7	Galway United	34	−5	41
8	Waterford	34	−10	37
9	Drogheda United	34	−13	37
10	Sligo Rovers	34	−34	24