Shamrock Rovers v Bohemians prediction · Premier Division

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 22:30

Shamrock Rovers 2–1 Bohemians SHAMROCK ROVERS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shamrock Rovers win~~50%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.380

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.549

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shamrock Rovers win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Shamrock Rovers was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
1′KICK-OFF Shamrock Rovers v Bohemians
4′Much as we predicted: Shamrock Rovers was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
5′Much as we predicted: Shamrock Rovers was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–25
8′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Daniel Cleary · Shamrock Rovers
14′SUBSTITUTION · 15' Bohemians · On: Ryan Burke · Off: Adam McDonnell
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Shamrock Rovers 0–0 Bohemians · John McGovern
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Shamrock Rovers 1–0 Bohemians · John McGovern
45′SECOND HALF Shamrock Rovers 1–0 Bohemians
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Bohemians · On: James Taylor · Off: Dayle Rooney
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Bohemians · On: Markuss Strods · Off: Colm Whelan
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Shamrock Rovers · On: John O'Reilly-O'Sullivan · Off: Jack Byrne
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Matthew Healy · Shamrock Rovers
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Markuss Strods · Bohemians
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Shamrock Rovers 1–1 Bohemians · John McGovern
70′⚽ GOAL · 71' Shamrock Rovers 1–1 Bohemians · Ross Tierney
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Shamrock Rovers 1–1 Bohemians · Ross Tierney
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Shamrock Rovers 2–1 Bohemians · Ross Tierney
75′⚽ GOAL · 76' Shamrock Rovers 2–1 Bohemians · Dylan Watts
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Dawson Devoy · Bohemians
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' John O'Reilly-O'Sullivan · Shamrock Rovers
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Shamrock Rovers · On: Jonathan Afolabi · Off: John McGovern
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Shamrock Rovers · On: Cory O'Sullivan · Off: William Fitzgerald
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Shamrock Rovers · On: Aaron Greene · Off: Graham Burke
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Bohemians · On: Sadou Diallo · Off: Ryan Burke
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Bohemians · On: Harry Patrick Vaughan · Off: Connor Parsons
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Shamrock Rovers · On: Najemedine Razi · Off: Dylan Watts
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Stephen Bradley · Shamrock Rovers
FTFULL TIME Shamrock Rovers 2–1 Bohemians
FTShamrock Rovers 2–1 Bohemians · Shamrock Rovers win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

Shamrock Rovers win50%

Draw26%

Bohemians win24%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 20:00

VenueTallaght Stadium

Line-ups

Shamrock Rovers

3-4-2-1

Bohemians

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Shamrock Rovers

Bohemians

4Days since last match10

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	32	+20	62
3	Bohemians	32	+19	59

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Shamrock Rovers

3-4-2-1

1 E. McGinty

6 D. Cleary

4 Pico

5 L. Grace

22 T. Sobowale

8 M. Healy

7 D. Watts

24 W. Fitzgerald

29 J. Byrne

10 G. Burke

88 J. McGovern

Coach · S. Bradley

Substitutes

25 · L. Steacy

27 · C. O'Sullivan

11 · J. Mulraney

26 · John O'Sullivan

28 · N. Razi

19 · A. Brennan

18 · J. Afolabi

9 · A. Greene

31 · M. Noonan

Bohemians

4-2-3-1

25 P. Walters

16 D. Power

12 P. Hickey

22 S. Todd

6 J. Flores

10 D. Devoy

17 A. McDonnell

11 D. Rooney

26 R. Tierney

7 C. Parsons

9 C. Whelan

Coach · A. Reynolds

Substitutes

41 · P. Madden

18 · D. James-Taylor

5 · S. Diallo

8 · H. Vaughan

32 · M. Strods

3 · R. Burke

4 · N. Morahan

1 · K. Chorążka

21 · Josh Adam

Our number · shamrock rovers winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

50% The market40%

Us50%

~~Market~~40%

We make Shamrock Rovers a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · shamrock rovers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shamrock Rovers win	50%	40%	+10
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Bohemians win	24%	32%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	50%	51%	−1
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	31%	−3
Shamrock Rovers or draw	76%	68%	+8
Shamrock Rovers clean sheet	35%	–	–
Bohemians clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.9 6.5 3.9 1 10.4 12.5 6.1 2.2 2 9.0 9.4 4.9 3 4.9 5.1 2.7 4 2.0 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shamrock Rovers down, Bohemians across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,067 Premier Division matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 162 played.

Head to head

23 previous meetings, 2.61 goals a meeting; 12 of 23 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bohemians away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Shamrock Rovers, 1.05 for Bohemians. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

23 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.61

~~Over 2.5~~12 of 23

~~Both scored~~13 of 23

~~Last meetings~~BOH 1–2 SHA · SHA 2–1 BOH · BOH 3–2 SHA · SHA 2–1 BOH

Form · last six in Premier Division

SHAMROCK ROVERS

WDDLWW3–2 · 3–3 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 3–1

BOHEMIANS

LWWWWW1–3 · 5–3 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	32	+20	62
2	St Patrick's Athl.	32	+27	59
3	Bohemians	32	+19	59
4	Shelbourne	33	+1	43
5	Derry City	32	+3	41
6	Dundalk	33	−5	41
7	Galway United	32	−6	38
8	Waterford	32	−10	34
9	Drogheda United	33	−15	34
10	Sligo Rovers	33	−34	23